I’ve been writing for a long time now about how the mobile is going to do to the PC, what the PC did to the mainframe. Mainframes certainly aren’t extinct, but they’re a niche market today.
The scenario I see is that the mobile will become our primary digital device and that when we need to, we’ll dock it into a dumb terminal to get a bigger screen and a keyboard. Although, if we look further ahead again, I’m sure keyboards will disappear as an interface, followed by screens – some kind of contact lens or glasses will replace them. Most people who really know, tell me that the docking idea isn’t going to happen and no manufacturer is thinking in these terms at all. But I’m sticking to my thinking.
It seems that legendary tech entrepreneur and investor, Mark Cuban, agrees with me, which is reassuring.
….I could carry my Sidekick or ITouch with me and when I set it on my desk, or even walk into a hotel room, it immediately makes a connection with my monitor or HDTV , my full size keyboard and either with a usb cable or wirelessly, lets me connect to a thumbdrive or some external hard drive.
Mark’s main question is when, not really if. So at least if I am barking up the wrong tree, I seem to be in good company now.
Incidentally, if this theory is right, Microsoft are the big losers as they have no significant presence in mobile today – Windows Mobile just hasn’t made it and HTC are the only handset manufacturer with any volume sales, accounting for 80% of all sales ever (courtesy of some excellent sleuthing of Tricia Duryee of MocoNews).
Redmond badly needs a plan for mobile. Perhaps they’ll but RIM, which would be a good start.
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