I’m just reading Malcolm Gladwell’s (he of The Tipping Point and Blink) new book, Outliers and very interesting it is too (link on the right). More to the point it’s a very salutary story for our times and all those people and companies out there who are suffering right now.
Let me first say that I’ve long maintained that timing is the least understood and often the least appreciated factor in business success. Entrepreneurs often credit “great team” or “brilliant idea” with their triumphs, but the reality is that timing more often than not has played a siginificant part. I learned this lesson the hard way by signing a funding round on 11th September 2001, only to watch it unravel due to the macro-economic climate that had nothing to do with the business whatsoever.
I’d say that I’d take a mediocre team and a so-so idea, but with brilliant timing, over any other combination, any day. And I’m sure there’s lots of people out there right now who would agree with me.
Gladwell has two themes for the book – which is essentially a study of success. The first is that to get really good at something (a sport, a musical instrument, or really anything that requires a degree of practice), you need to put in at least 10,000 hours of practice. This 10,000 hours is remarkably consistent across disciplines. It’s like the old aphorism “The more I practice, the luckier I get”, attributed to Gary Player, as well as countless others.
But the key to getting the practice in the first place (and subsequent success too) really comes down to luck in the form of opportunity to practice.
As an example, Bill Gates, is cited in the book. Gates’ early life coincided with the end of punch card computing, which had severely restricted anyone’s ability to practice writing code. Furthermore, a series of happy accidents allowed him to get various programming jobs while still in High School, such that he could often cram in 20 or 30 hours a week. By the time he was ready to make the break and drop out of Harvard, he was way past his 10,000 hours and says today “If there were 50 teenagers in the world [who had that kind of experience], I’d be stunned”.
There are lots of other examples in the book where timing, opportunity and hard work combine to create the perfect storm, and others where people failed through poor timing and lack of ability to get the practice.
I recently read Warren Buffet’s authorised biography and the same pattern was there too. The man was obsessed from a very early age with making money and very quickly focused on stocks as his preferred method. So by the time he started in business, he had way more than his 10,000 hours under his belt and thus laid the foundations for becoming the best investor of his generation (or maybe ever?) and becoming a multi-billionaire. But again, his upbringing gave him this opportunity, including having a father who worked as a stockbroker, as well as being able to study under the legendary, Benjamin Graham.
Just to give one other example, which I found interesting; Canadian ice hockey. The cut-off date that determines which age-group you belong to is 1st January. So if you are born on 1st of January, you’ll be the oldest in your league. If you’re born on 31st December, you’re the youngest.
Selection and streaming in the sport start really young, which gives the older kids a much better chance of getting picked at that age, as they’re better co-ordinated and bigger. And once selected, they’re the ones who get more practice and the whole thing becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Which means that by the time the kids are 18 or so, there’s hardly anyone in the elite leagues born between September and December and the vast majority are January, February, March (and April) babies.
Outliers is an important book for these times of economic woes. I know it’s painful having to shut down companies (been there!) and lay off staff or even be let go yourself. But the important thing is that it’s really not your fault and as times get better you’ll find a way to turn timing to your advantage.
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