Most of the press coverage of Microsoft recently has obviously been focused on their on-off pursuit of the coy Yahoo!. Followed by lots of analyses of what Redmond needs to do now to catch up in Search and Advertising.
Mr Ballmer has also spoken a lot about how they understand that software is moving to cloud based services and that they are responding to this too.
But, as readers of MobHappy will know, the cloud is only half the future.
The other half is that the mobile will become the most important digital device on a number of different levels; more people have web connected mobiles than connected PCs - and that’s already happened; outside N America and Europe, the PC itself is going to be either leapfrogged or annihilated, which will profoundly affect the way that digital data is consumed everywhere; and in the words of my ongoing mantra, the mobile will do to the PC, what the PC did to the mainframe*.
This means that mobile needs to be central to Microsoft’s strategy if they are to have a future and a lack of success in this area means that their current problems are going to seem trivial in comparison.
Which is why their current sales on Windows Mobile must be worrying them more that they’re letting on, with their recent admirably jaunty “What? Problem? Us?” press conference, where they admitted missing their target by 10%, or some 2 million units in real money. However you spin this - and they tried with this great quote “It sounds like a large number of units, but actually, it’s less than about a month’s worth of a run-rate.” - it’s bad news.
There is some comfort in the rising market share - currently at 13% of smartphones. But let’s just look at that. According to AdMob Metrics which measures consumption of mobile web pages in the wild, yes 13% of pages were viewed worldwide on Windows Mobile devices, out of a potential 3.5 Billion. But already iPhone has a 5% share and don’t forget these Metrics (and Windows Mobile results) were before iPhone 3G kicked in and before it was available in so many more territories, which surely must take a chunk out of the future sales. They’ll also have to contend with Symbian going open source (who already dominate the market with a 58% share based on these Metrics), the rise and rise of the Crackberry by the besuited amongst us and possibly the launch of Android, although I’m not sure how influential that’s going to be now.
It actually gets even bleaker than this. As I observed above, some of the great changes in mobile are going to be led by markets where the mobile is already, and will continue to be, the primary digital device. But outside the US, Windows Mobile is nothing. Look again at the Metrics and while Windows has a healthy slug of 27% of the US, in the other top markets for mobile web consumption, it’s insignificant, with the best success coming in the UK, where they have a measly 4% share**.
I don’t wish to add to their troubles and certainly take no pleasure in observing this. However, it’s far more important that Microsoft gets their mobile strategy sorted out than worrying about Search - as it’s no less than a matter of medium-to-long-term survival. I’d suggest that Windows Mobile probably isn’t going to be the answer and they need to think of a radical and brave new direction to assure their future in a world where the mobile is rampant.
* If you’re not a regular reader, please don’t bother to point out that the PC is irreplaceable for tasks like writing a document, preparing a presentation or editing video. If you dock your mobile into a monitor and keyboard combo (using today’s technology), you don’t need a PC.
** There may be other markets where Windows Mobile might be doing better and please let me know in a comment if you have access to knowledge that I don’t. But overall, I don’t think this is unrepresentative of the state Windows today.
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[...] the mobile moves to become the dominant digital/web access device globally ( http://mobhappy.com/blog1/2008/07/31/windows-mobile-in-the-dunk-tank/ ), that Nokia (for example) may be open to the same kind of treatment as Microsoft was in [...]
[...] the mobile moves to become the dominant digital/web access device globally (Windows Mobile in the Dunk Tank - MobHappy), that Nokia (for example) may be open to the same kind of treatment as Microsoft was in it’s [...]
Hi Russell
You won’t be surprised that I totally disagree with this assertion:
“the mobile will become the most important digital device on a number of different levels; more people have web connected mobiles than connected PCs - and that’s already happened; outside N America and Europe, the PC itself is going to be either leapfrogged or annihilated”
In my view, that’s palpable nonsense.
PC prices are plummetting - various forecasters expect 2bn+ installed base by the middle of next decade, with most of the next 700m being sold into markets like India & China. And each will have an average >1 users, so I’d expect the total PC user base to be perhaps 70-80% that of mobile phone users. And among people with an ARPU >$10 a month, it’ll be closer to 100%.
I see absolutely no sign that businesses will use the “docking” approach for phone+keyboard+screen combos.
I see absolutely no sign that software developers are shifting to phones as platforms for creating software. Which together with business imperatives, means that governments wanting a local software industry will continue to drive up PC literacy through schools etc.
And above all, I (and most of the network equipment manufacturers) cannot see global mobile network capacity ever being able to service more than a few % of total Internet access traffic, even with all the cool femtocell, SDR, WiFi, spectrum management, MIMO etc techniques in the pipeline.
Yes, mobile devices are becoming more important. But there’s so much groupthink around their big-picture importance in computing that it’s starting to look like self-delusion to me.
Frankly, Microsoft ought to be a lot more worried about low-cost Linux for PCs & servers, than about mobile devices (with whoevers’ OS) taking over from PCs.
Dean
[...] in an immediate post-iPhone world. Russell Buckley summarized it with his post titled “Windows Mobile in the dunk tank.” He starts his piece by emphasizing why mobile has to be important to Microsoft: [...]
Why the focus on WM?
Build a solution to the customers problem that runs across all mobile platforms. People keep looking at things in a silo’s - there’s this wonderful communications protocol that connects all these silo’s and a thing called a browser that allows you to see content.
The future is one platform (the web), one interface (the browser) and multiple data sets (the context). It simply shouldn’t matter what device I use to connect with.
When viewed in that context the only thing that matters is the protocol that connects everything and there’s good news there - it’s extensible so you can start focusing on delivering new services across everything.
Cheers,
Peter
Thanks for the comments everyone.
Dean, since we’re talking about the future, I think we’ll just have to wait and see who is right.
One point though. I’ve been writing about this for at least 5 years and talking about it for 8, long before the current groupthink, if indeed these sorts of enlightened people exist in any real numbers.
As far as mobiles being used to access the internet is concerned, I agree that it won’t all be over the operator networks by any means.
One affect of the iPhone has been that it’s really woken up Silicon Valley (the capital of software development) to the mobile, so we’ll be seeing lots of developers shifting at least some of their resources to mobile platforms from now on in.
Watch this space.
Russell
[...] the Windows Mobile share, the bad news is that Apple is coming on even more strongly and that Windows Mobile phones appear to be really only strong in the USA. Filed under Microsoft, Windows Mobile Related posts:Microsoft formally unveils [...]
Russell
I think that I agree with most of what you are saying.
What is really interesting in this technology cycle, when compared to the rise of desktop OS, is the group collaboration focusing its combined efforts on an improved user experience. I hear more buzz about iPhone, Symbian and Android than WM. Consumers will gravitate towards the devices that can offer the best user experience.
Where we slightly depart in agreement is in your assertion that MS should be less obsessed about catching up with Google in search. Google has overtaken MS to become the most trusted brand on both sides of the pond. This must be a real thorn to the Redmond mob.
MS has the strength to fight more than one battle, and so they should!
This coming from a self-confessed disciple of Jobs!!
Catch up soon
marc
Hi Russ,
Windows Mobile is actually still pretty popular among the greater Chinese regions (mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) and that’s the areas where the AdMob Metrics does not cover fully mainly due to language issues.
The better way to find out how Windows Mobile is doing is probably check HTC’s units of shipment since they are the largest WM OEM out there.
That is not to say Windows Mobile is doing just fine though. There are plenty of other issues with Windows Mobile.
Marc - fair enough, they probably can fight more than one battle. But to paraphrase Mr Ballmer, the search thing is tactical………… while the mobile issue is strategic.
So that’s where I’d be investing senior management time.
George - thanks for the info.
Cheers
Russell
There is a possible meeting of the ways between Russell and Dean in the growing eeePC market. Microsoft has the ability to shift the mobile battleplace to somewhere where it has dominant OS share and already knows one major competitor will not be participating (Nokia has stated its lack of interest). Microsoft needs a game changer at this point - I think it has already lost in trying to play by traditional mobile rules - too powerful and unpopular to win the support of the operators and not powerful enough to force its own agenda (ref. Android). It has nothing to lose - why not throw its weight behind eeePC’s and redefine people’s idea of what a smartphone is.
Great idea, Scott.
Having said that, if I had to make a bet, I’d say that the eeePC will go the way of the PDA and get converged into mobile. But that’s not a definite and they certainly should have some runners in that race.
Russell
[...] Russell Buckley, a truly top geezer, head of the MMA and MD of Admob, blogged an interesting piece about Microsoft’s mobile strategy. Check it out here. [...]
Great article. Blogged it here: http://www.jonathanmacdonald.com/?p=1280
I cant wait to see whether MS come up with a brave new direction in mobile…I wonder whether the biggest companies even view mobile as the world’s predominant communication device that it is, in contrast to simply another thing that accesses the internet…
Good stuff Russ - as ever.
Russell
As an interesting counterpoint to our usual debate, it might interest you to know that Internet user numbers in China are now growing faster than overall Mobile users, once multiple SIM-ownership is taken into account.
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2008/08/internet-user-base-is-growing-faster.html
Now obviously China doesn’t have 3G yet, but it does have a huge push on fixed broadband infrastructure rollout, so the picture will be different in other markets. But it’s an interesting pointer nevertheless - well over 90% of Chinese Internet users rely on desktops, although about 25% also use laptops &/or phones as well.
Dean
Thanks for having such a great resource for iPhones. I\’ve been searching all over for this. http://www.iphonehub.com/iPhone/Chinese-iPhones