Mary Meeker is the legendary Morgan Stanley analyst (aka “Queen of the Net”), whose regular state-of-the-nation reports into internet trends are eagerly awaited among the digerati as being both insightful and visionary.
One of the emerging trends she points to in her most recent work (get hold of a copy!) is about mobile:
Mobile Internet represents a new computing cycle
- Mainframe -> Minicomputer -> PC -> PC Internet -> Mobile Internet
This parallels one of my mantras in the last 5 years or so that I’ve been blogging:
“The mobile will do to the PC, what the PC did to the mainframe”
This seemed a little unlikely when I first started spouting forth along those lines and attracted a fair amount of scepticism along the way. However, it seems increasingly likely that this is indeed a mega-trend and one that I’d advise you to be planning for.
Following my trip to Web 2.0 last week, you should note that especially well if your live and work in The Valley, which is distorting your reality a little, I’d respectfully and humbly suggest - the mobile web isn’t just about the iPhone and waiting until all phones are like that. If you believe and act on this basis, it will prove a very dangerous and costly strategy. This point is also confirmed by Meeker, who points out that “unlike past cycles, US is follower, not leader”.
In this revolution, the armed Mob has already left their homes and is marching on the PC palace. It’s too late to prevent it, so you should be thinking in terms of how you and your company join the revolution today. Next year is already too late.
—–>Follow us on Twitter too: @russellbuckley and @caaarlo
My GoldenSwamp.com post yesterday here:
http://www.goldenswamp.com/2008/05/01/social-networks-where-our-children-are-and-education-isnt/
is based on Mary Meeker’s report. My take is on implications for education from social networking, a main theme of the report. In my post there is a link to an AdTech analysis from Meeker’s report and a link to the full 72-page Meeker pdf, in the AdTech newsletter.
Great to read this post Russell as it confirms I’m not going slowy insane with similar thoughts! Firmly believe that mobile IS web 3.0 and this will come to a shock to many who are stuck in PC mode. I’d like add that the “mobile agencies will do to the digital agencies what they did to the above-the-line agencies” Lol…:-)
[...] Mary Meeker: Mainframe -> Minicomputer -> PC -> PC Internet -> Mobile Internet [...]