Russell Beattie announced yesterday that he was giving up on Mowser, his transcoder startup, saying he didn’t believe in the mobile web any more:
In other words, I think anyone currently developing sites using XHTML-MP markup, no Javascript, geared towards cellular connections and two inch screens are simply wasting their time, and I’m tired of wasting my time.
He goes on to say that browsing on a mobile sucks without a decent, capable browser — which isn’t news, certainly not to Russ — and that without one, users aren’t interested. Bad news for Mowser, but, fair enough. I’d agree to a large extent: when the mobile browsing experience is awful, users aren’t going to bother. Again, I don’t think that’s news.
But that’s a far cry from “The Mobile Web is Dead” stuff that Russ’ post generated in the tech blogosphere. The other half of Mowser, Mike Rowehl, chimes in with his reaction to the reaction, and as usual, he pretty much hits the nail on the head: yes, the mobile web has problems, and Mowser had its own obstacles. The failure of the latter doesn’t automatically indicate the failure of the former.
Does the death of one startup equal the death of an entire market? Rarely. Mowser was a victim of many things, the crapness of the mobile web environment was one. The simplistic WAP-rooted mobile web might be dead — that is, if it was ever really all that alive. But more and more users have more and more capable mobile devices, and they want to access the web and online content and services with them.
This isn’t a shot at Mowser, which I think was a solid transcoder, but delivering web sites transcoded for lowest-common-denominator handsets and browsers isn’t likely to generate the best user experience for now and forever. If you’re using a really crappy mobile browser on a crappy device, the experience is still going to be generally crappy, in spite of how great a job the transcoder does. Even Russ says “Mowser was always meant to be a short term bet against Moore’s law”, with the transcoding just intended as an entry point.
So perhaps what we should take away is that the low end of the mobile market, where it’s just a dumbed-down version of some other content, rendered in a crappy browser with a terrible UI, is dead. But in my eyes, the rest of the “mobile web” — delivering content and services that delight mobile users, is only getting started.
Any thoughts?
As a footnote, Mike is looking to sell Mowser’s assets, while Russ is looking for a job, so get in touch if you know of anything.
Thanks for the even-handed coverage Carlo. I definitely agree, the mobile web isn’t dead. The minimal level of expectation is shifting, which means we need to start thinking different about how we deliver mobile web experiences. That wasn’t something that Mowser did well, and we failed because of it. But it certainly doesn’t mean that it’s not possible to build a successful site targeting exclusively mobile devices.
My sentiments exactly…in fact I think there’s been more focus on failure than the successes recently. Like that I found this post of yours on an iPhone twitter site, http://itweet.net which is a mobile website. I’ve written a long post about it today - http://blog.crispwireless.com/index.php/2008/04/15/mobile-web-pronounced-dead-again/
This post brought back my memory of the first time I saw the Internet live. It was at a 1996 luncheon meeting of the New York Advertising Club. All we saw was some text projected on a crooked portable home movie screen. The text flowed up the screen now and then. Several times the connection was lost and we waited while the connection was reestablished by the apologetic and frutrated presenters. I am sure some of the people in that audience left the lunch completely turned off to the Internet. It is very likely that several others in the audience are now wealthy big winners from the DotCom era that lay ahead.
We need to remember that for probably well over half of the U.S., for some time to come, possibly well after 2012, the intrigue of a mobile web will not actually happen. It will come in time, but to ask the majority of people to specifically buy a phone,(ie: pay extra) that can access 3G, and then PAY for a data package (again, pay more), for something they do not perceive value in, is unlikely.
Just like the dial-up versus high speed internet connections, the U.S. did not see 50% of users on high speed until 2007. And we are just tipping over 50%. This is the reality for the mobile web as well.
However, this does not mean it is dead. It simply means that it will take time to develop and get usage rates up. Unfortunately for Mike and Russ, they were on the bleeding edge. Great idea, the timing just didn’t match with their revenue needs. It will come. But the unfortunate truth is, for many in the mobile space now, funds will run dry before the adoption overtakes the industry.
The irony is that mobile has never looked so good from a lot of points of view - more open networks, better handsets, takeoff of mobile advertising.
We need some big mobile 2.0 successes though - itsmy.com, shozu, mxit … at the moment its just admob making the running.
The Mobile Wed Is Not Dead! Its just getting started..
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