There’s broadly two schools of thought for mobile technology. The issue tends to polarise people and some can get quite heated about it all, for some reason.
First, we have what I call the Separatistas, who believe that a specialist device is always going to beat one that can multi-task. “I know phones can play music,” they cry passionately, “but not as well as an MP3 player!!”.
Then we have the Convergionists, who pragmatically point out that the same could be said about cameras, videos, calculators, watches and alarm clocks. A specialist camera is usually going to be better than a camera phone, but that doesn’t mean that the specialist camera industry hasn’t been decimated or that Nokia isn’t the leading camera brand in the world. This is in spite of camera phones only being 10 years old.
In fact, “good enough” and convenience is always going to trump the hassle of carrying an extra device that you only use occasionally - for most people.
The same may about to happen with the Personal Navigation Device. Business Week ran an article yesterday pointing out that both TomTom and Garmin, the leaders in this field, are having a bit of a downturn. Executives are blaming a faltering economy, the low price of the dollar pushing up retail prices, cheap competition - anything but the fact that the market is about to be subsumed by the mobile phone tsunami.
Now, I’m sure that there are plenty of PND owners who are passionate Separatistas and who will bring out the same old arguments. And I agree that current versions of mobile phone navigation systems aren’t as good as the specialist device. But it’s good enough, as anyone with the Google Maps on their phone will tell you.
The only real question in my mind is whether the mobile will take over the specialist in-car sector at some point, which is going to be immune from the slump for a while yet. I’d guess it will take over, as the concept of docking your mobile into your car, which has a special, larger screen and speakers, and then removing it when you park to get guidance within the last mile, will be very compelling. Certainly, a lower cost docking station is going to be more attractive, for most, than the full monty.
So my advice is that if you work in the navigation sector, get your CV or Resume into a handset manufacturer, before all your colleagues see the writing on the wall. I can’t see much of a future for the stand alone PND, I’m afraid. And just remember that if this sounds far-fetched, I’m sure plenty of people in the camera industry would have scoffed at the same idea - just 10 years ago.
Russell - Like the typography you came with up for the multifunction vs. special-purpose divide !!
For the use case when I am not in my car, my mobile works just fine with the various map/navigation apps available today. However, as you point out, as long as the integration between the mobile and the automotive can be completed for the mass market, that will change the user experience and users won’t/shouldn’t really care which parts of the technology reside where.
I touched on this in the context of the DASH Express announcement in my blog. As I mentioned in my blog, Garmin seems to be hedging their bets with the nuvifone. And interestingly I saw some job openings at Garmin for wireless protocol and compliance engineers. Connect the dots…
It’s an interesting one - some functions work nicely converged into one device, some don’t. I’d wager that most people who want music on the move still buy a separate iPod - but some people who don’t listen to much music may use their phone, just as some people who don’t take many pictures will use their phone camera almost exclusively. In 50 years time everything might be converged into a single Smarty-sized always on device with a holographic display, but in the forseeable future I just don’t buy a one-size-fits-all philosophy.
A great counter-example is mPayment, for example by NFC. This could easily have gone the way of cameras and many people predicted it would - yet in Japan it is near ubiquitous but rarely used, and elsewhere it has not taken off and won’t any day soon. People pay with their cards, a dedicated device better suited to the job - and NFC is now being integrated onto them (eg. Oyster/Barclaycard). I would bet money that payment will end up there and not on a phone, until the world has changed beyond meaningful prediction. Convergence is not always inevitable.
Obviously you are trying to underline your point, but I don’t think pragmatism can be summed up so simplistically… For pragmatic reasons, I have an iPod Touch and a phone - the music experience on my phone (currently considered a ‘music’ phone) is rubbish in comparison, and I travel a lot and cannot risk arriving in a foreign country at 2am with no phone battery - but I don’t want to sit out the journey without music either. I also value the bigger screen for wifi browsing when I’m near a connection, but I never browse on my phone. I can’t pretend to be in the majority, but I’d be happy with an ultraslim phone and a separate browsing / music tablet. If they shared the same USB-port charger I’d be totally happy.
On cameras: interestingly, at the same time as the phone market eats the standalone point-and-shoot camera, there is growth in the low-end SLR and high-end point-and-shoot (eg. Canon G9) markets and huge interest in related areas like Strobism. Saying mobile phones ate the whole camera market is only part of the picture - people are also generally more wealthy and have cheaper high-end options, so those who want to take good pictures are now investing in better kit and the market for mid-range holiday/drinking snaps is being squeezed. I wouldn’t say it is decimated yet though - Nokia maybe sell the most digital camera sensors, but these are often not used (my parents have a camera phone each as does my grandmother, and not one of those cameras has been used). The trend is clear, but the quality isn’t there yet.
Personal navigational devices are a clear market where the phone will take over - in-car units, as you say, are less clear in the short and medium term but eventually it may happen.
There is a temptation therefore to make sweeping assumptions about “everything” defintely ending up only in the phone. More detailed analysis suggests otherwise. I see a clear pattern of people owning high-end dedicated kit for things they are passionate about - I don’t intend to ever hang up my high-end SLR, glass and flashes for a phone. I can also see a very diverse fashion-led phone market fleshing out all the niches left behind. Some will be N95-style “do everything” monsters; some will be niche targeted devices like a Blackberry, Cybershot or Walkman phone which do most things OK if they have to, and one thing quite well. Many will still be simple cheap handsets which are 99+% of the time used as phones, with a bunch of functions that never get used.
In a way that is close to your ultimate prediction of full device convergence, in that the phones *could* be used for anthing - it’s just subtly different from assuming because they are converged they will be used as converged devices to the destruction of everythign else. A dedicated device which does something very well will always find a home, and (for some device categories) it will be a lucrative one.
@raddedas, my old fruit, I think you’re putting words into my mouth
I didn’t say that convergence is always inevitable. There will be many exceptions, knives, lawnmowers and possibly payments as you suggest, spring to mind.
I did say:
“In fact, “good enough” and convenience is always going to trump the hassle of carrying an extra device that you only use occasionally - for most people.”
So there will always be Passionistas who will prefer the specialist device, such as for dedicated cameras. It’s just that “most people” will be happy with camera phones. Perhaps I could have added “most of the time”.
You and I are also not most people and we should bear that in mind too. I have two iPods, a phone (no built-in camera), a laptop, an MP3 voice recorder and a camera, none of which I leave the house without, apart from local errands, when one iPod and phone suffices.
This is far from typical behaviour though and for “most people”, a mobile is all they’re going to need for an MP3 player and camera (and alarm clock, calculator etc).
Russell
Russell,
Nice post. I agree that good enough will trump a stand alone in most cases as long as the price is right. One thing the BusinessWeek article didn’t differentiate is whether handsets with navigational capabilities only require a carrier data plan or is an extra service with a monthly fee.
IMHO, the latter is a sticking point because unless you’re a road warrior, how many consumers can justify the $5-10 a month for finding directions a couple times a month?
Now if they had a micropayment model where you would only pay let’s say $0.99 a trip request then I would happily ditch my Garmin.
John
Of course, you’re overlooking the most likely additional device that a Separatista will have with them:
a second phone…..
… in which case it’s going to be increasingly likely that at least one of their phones will have GPS and some navigation software. And the other one will probably have the 5MP camera in it.
@Dean
Hmm, that’s an interesting idea.
Certainly second phones are on the rise, though reasons why vary. For some it’s private v business thing. For others a fully functioning “day” model that gets swapped with a smaller and sleeker version for going out. And there’s the Shag Phone idea (a second, secret phone) that has been around for ages, but I don’t think it’s a mass market thing.
But in every instance, you’d look for a different set of features, possibly taking into account what your other phone does.
Any other thoughts on this?
Russell
[...] going to wade once again into one of Russell’s favorite topics, the separatista vs. convergionist debate. Whatever your feelings on the matter, I think we can all probably agree that there’s [...]