One of my predictions for 2008 was that it would be the year of the mobile web and this would be especially the case in the US. A combination of flat rate data costs and a huge universe of users would see Europe rapidly lose its notional lead in the mobile world. Already in December, nearly 900 million page views (out of a global 2 Billion) come from the US on the AdMob network.
I was reminded of this again today with the launch of a new website, YourNextHorse.com - a vertical classified site that allows you to buy and sell horses in the US.
Now I think that we can agree that horse ownership is a pretty niche market, for obvious reasons, even if we include people who would browse the site by way of fantasy - in the same way that luxury boat sites get more traffic that you might expect. So I was quite surprised to see that a wap version of the site is also available and it seems to contain some features that take into account the different user experiences.
In the UK, which is probably the most advanced in Europe in terms of mobile web usage, the market is still at a stage where a mobile version is certainly not an automatic decision. Indeed, most mainstream traditional publications are only now in the process of launching them - or have done in the last 6 months. I think we’re some way away from niche sites like horse trading having a mobile version.
Admittedly, one launch doesn’t confirm a major trend is taking place. But I do believe that this is indicative of what’s happening on a macro level.
And someday soon, having a mobile version of the site will be as automatic as having a website in the first place.
2008 will see your prediction come true in the United States. Factors such as widespread PC availability (thus the need for sms was not as necessary as we have ample access to email) and our carriers not allowing for SMS cross carrier delivery severely stunted our growth. However, the US seems to be heading into 2008 with a head of steam.
The iPhone, (I am well aware of the simplistic features and use of GPRS), has changed the playing field in the US. What it has done is simply shown a few million people what IS possible with a mobile device. By ‘forcing’ those who purchased the iPhone to pay for unlimited data and surfing, Americans, (long known for not wanting to pay for anything extra, ie data charges), are now surfing and their eyes have been opened.
The US can not wave a magic wand and instantly catch up to the rest of the world. However, with UI’s like the iPhone now available, we should start to see the pick up we long for here in the states. Our company has seen more traffic generated over the past two months then all of 2007.
Once the interest is sparked, better phones and thus more mobile activity are sure to be on their way..