Continuing my Predictions for next year….
4. First Projection Phones Launched
2008 should see the first projection phones being launched, which will allow you to project whatever’s on your phone screen onto a nearby surface.
As well as being very cool, this is important for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, it might sound odd, but it’s going to be the death knell for the cheap to mid-range specialist projector market. While I doubt if the manufacturers are quaking in their boots, neither were low end camera manufacturers ten years ago - they’d have probably laughed at the suggestion that within a decade, Nokia would have been the largest seller of digital cameras in the world.
The other reason why it’s important is a much more strategic and revolutionary one. People who say that mobile will never overtake PCs in terms of digital dominance normally cite two reasons - screen size and data inputting (or typing). Projector phones do away with the screen size argument. So all we need is a keyboard (and there’s some very nifty, foldable ones these days) and tra la - the mobile has the same functionality as any PC.
Of course, the early projector phones probably won’t have a great picture and much work will need to be done to improve clarify, focus and definition. But it will be the shape of things to come.
And that means that the mobile will do to the desktop, what the PC did to the mainframe.
5. A Government Will Fall Because of Mobiles
Mobiles are simply the most powerful consciousness-raising and organisational political tool in history.
2008 will see another Government toppled by the people, who will organise their resistance primarily using their mobile phones.
My bet is Zimbabwe, but that’s not part of the prediction.
6. Explosion of Third Party IM
Raporo, Mxit, Mig33 - all highly successful, if slightly under the mainstream radar. They allow users to communicate in an IM-like experience at a fraction of the cost of sms or official operator IM tariffs. And when I say “highly successful”, combined they have a claimed usership in the tens of millions.
There’s a truism in mobile that users don’t like to download applications to their phones and these guys prove that this is not true. Most of the time people don’t download as they don’t understand the benefit - therefore, much of the problem is a marketing issue, as these IM players have proved.
This rapid growth to date is just about to explode in 2008.
As a Part B to this story, watch out for the first operator who tries to block their subscribers from using one of these services.
projectors? not in 2008 buddy.
Stefan - we’ll see
Russell
Great. You’ve just clued in Mugabe that he needs to make cellphones illegal on penalty of death.
I definitely agree to Projection prediction. I have some experience with projection devices, especially high end. It looks like home market is moving completely to LCD and Plasma (while Plasma in struggle) and there are some amazing technologies out there in projection like DLP which can’t be wasted.
Some device manufacturer will come up with a way to integrate it to a handset and will say “You want resolution? Here is 1280×720 HD output at your wall”.
Also don’t forget the business and presentation..
A Government Will Fall Because of Mobiles?? really?
How will this happen?
What is ‘part of the prediction’?
Steve C
Can’t find fault with those chief. Hasn’t a government already fallen via the power of the mobile (phillipines, ref Smart Mobs)? Or was that a simple co-ordination of electoral power? Tomi Ahonen pointed out the role mobile is playing already in zimbabwe recently, with sms being sent in from across the border to keep people informed when opposition media is closed down. The mobile is the ultimate representation of decentralisation - that’s what makes it such a powerful edge-in tool. Imagine (as some have) a network of phones which act as nodes passing on the messages without the need for ‘the network provider’… that would really do it. At the moment there’s always the Burmese trick of shutting down the operators.
I also like the projector answer to the mobile critics. But not everyone will want to use it all the time. One key mobile strength we all know about is its personal, private nature.
Steve C - not sure what your question is. I’ve said that I think a government will fall where the resistance will be organised by mobiles. And that I’m not predicting it’ll definitely be Zimbabwe.
Err…not sure how to be clearer. Please can you clarify?
Russell