Continuing my Predictions for next year….
4. First Projection Phones Launched
2008 should see the first projection phones being launched, which will allow you to project whatever’s on your phone screen onto a nearby surface.
As well as being very cool, this is important for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, it might sound odd, but it’s going to be the death knell for the cheap to mid-range specialist projector market. While I doubt if the manufacturers are quaking in their boots, neither were low end camera manufacturers ten years ago - they’d have probably laughed at the suggestion that within a decade, Nokia would have been the largest seller of digital cameras in the world.
The other reason why it’s important is a much more strategic and revolutionary one. People who say that mobile will never overtake PCs in terms of digital dominance normally cite two reasons - screen size and data inputting (or typing). Projector phones do away with the screen size argument. So all we need is a keyboard (and there’s some very nifty, foldable ones these days) and tra la - the mobile has the same functionality as any PC.
Of course, the early projector phones probably won’t have a great picture and much work will need to be done to improve clarify, focus and definition. But it will be the shape of things to come.
And that means that the mobile will do to the desktop, what the PC did to the mainframe.
5. A Government Will Fall Because of Mobiles
Mobiles are simply the most powerful consciousness-raising and organisational political tool in history.
2008 will see another Government toppled by the people, who will organise their resistance primarily using their mobile phones.
My bet is Zimbabwe, but that’s not part of the prediction.
6. Explosion of Third Party IM
Raporo, Mxit, Mig33 - all highly successful, if slightly under the mainstream radar. They allow users to communicate in an IM-like experience at a fraction of the cost of sms or official operator IM tariffs. And when I say “highly successful”, combined they have a claimed usership in the tens of millions.
There’s a truism in mobile that users don’t like to download applications to their phones and these guys prove that this is not true. Most of the time people don’t download as they don’t understand the benefit - therefore, much of the problem is a marketing issue, as these IM players have proved.
This rapid growth to date is just about to explode in 2008.
As a Part B to this story, watch out for the first operator who tries to block their subscribers from using one of these services.
I’ve come across a couple articles about American kids and their mobile/online behavior. The first comes from USA Today and talks about how young people are using their handsets for shopping. There’s a lot of stuff in there that sounds like vendor hype, but some of the behavioral stuff is worth noting — in particular, the bit about kids sending images and messages around while they’re shopping, to validate their purchases with their peer group.
The second article is a writeup of some stats from the Pew Internet and American Life project, which does ongoing research into how Americans use the internet and digital services. They’ve got a new report out on Teens and Social Media that’s probably worth checking out if you’re active or interested in this space. In any case, the report looked out how kids are communicating with each other:
Nearly 40 percent of teens say they talk to friends on a traditional wired phone every day, and 35 percent say they do so on cell phones, the Pew Internet and American Life Project said Wednesday, analyzing its phone surveys from late 2006. Thirty-one percent of teens say they spend time in person with friends every day. Fewer teens say they communicate daily using instant messaging, text messages or internal messaging systems at Facebook, News Corp.’s MySpace or another social-networking site. Confirming anecdotal evidence, e-mail has lost favor among teens. It ranked at the bottom — used daily by only 14 percent of teens to keep in touch with friends.
Ninety-one percent of the social-networking teens use the sites to stay in touch with friends they see frequently; 82 percent use them to keep contact with those they rarely see in person. Three-quarters use them to make plans, and half say they make new friends there.
Note how kids are communicating, and how voice calls remain important. One of the Pew researchers says it’s because voice can offer a richer experience than other forms of speaking. But perhaps the bigger takeaway is that online and digital communications platforms drive real-world interaction. While there’s a widely held belief that kids are replacing in-person, face-to-face social contact with online interaction, maybe that’s not the case, and they’re using online services to enhance their face-to-face interactions.
It’s important to recognize that these kids don’t necessarily have a finite amount of communicative ability, especially as online and digital media make communications more efficient. They’re multi-taskers, and have a voracious appetite for platforms and services that help them communicate and connect with their friends. Increasing the efficiency and efficacy of communications is important for these users, and it certainly appears they’re interested in using online services that can help promote offline interaction.
Unlike Carlo’s all-at-once approach, I’m splitting my 2008 predictions into bit sized pieces across a few days. Last year, I got 7 out of 10, revised to 8 out of 10 by one generous reader. Let’s see if I can do better.
1. Privacy
I already wrote about this a couple of weeks back if you missed it and don’t have much more to say than that.
However, if Carlo’s buzzword for the year is “Open”, mine’s going to “Privacy”. Consumer groups, activists, the media and Opposition governments will unite to ensure it’s always high on the agenda and will swoop at the first hint of scandal or abuse.
While marketing might not be the prime target, it may well suffer from the fall out. So add to your checklist of things to do in the new year a review of your privacy policies and procedures. Are they fair, are the secure and would you stake the future of your business on them?
2. 2008 is the Year of the Mobile Web
2007 saw huge increases in mobile web traffic, particularly where flat rate data tariffs were available. Happily most operators have woken up to this now, although how they resisted so long beats me.
Of course, even in markets where they have been introduced, like the UK, they’re still too expensive, but I think we’ll see more downward movement to take the Mobile Web across its Rubicon.
One of the interesting side effects of this will be that the US (where fairer data pricing has long been the norm) will start to dominate content in the same way as they do with the PC web. Up until now, Europe has more than held its own in mobile web content, but the sheer number of US users will attract entrepreneurs and established business alike. In the meantime, many business people in Europe still think that mobile is something to do with sms and are going to miss out on the Gold Rush.
So much for Europe’s lead in mobile. Ho hum.
As a side note, when I presented these to Mobile Monday in Frankfurt, Germany a few weeks back, the second point on the slide after “2008 is the “Year of the Mobile Web” was
“…..but not in Germany!”. German operators alone still seem to think that they can rape their customers with impunity over data charges. No matter, one will break ranks soon and Germany will arrive at the party late, dishevelled, out of breath and start talking about how curious it is that their world leadership in mobile has disappeared in the last 5 years.
3. 3.5 Billion Phones
I asked a few pundits to share their predictions with me for the next year and the only one to do so was our pal Tomi Ahonen, who writes the excellent Communities Dominate Brands blog, along with Alan Moore, who I had the pleasure of meeting for the first time recently. The people who refused all did so on the grounds that “they don’t make predictions”. Probably very wise as if you make them, you can also be proved wrong, as we’ve seen on our 2007 roundup. But then - where’s the fun in safe?
Tomi pointed out that the big milestone next year is 3.5 Billion phones, which means that there’s now more than one mobile for every two people on the planet. Obviously, with multiple ownership, it doesn’t yet mean that 1 person in 2 will have a mobile - yet - but it’s still a pretty awesome number.
In comparison, there’s about 1.5 Billion TVs out there, which is why people get excited about the reach of this new media channel. And then think about how much more you can do with a phone than a TV and you have something that’s going to have a fundamental impact on the way we live our lives, both in developed nations and the emerging ones.
Incidentally, everyone knows (I think) that the BRIC markets are the ones to watch (and if you don’t, this is Brazil, Russian, India and China), but do you know about the next wave - the so called N11, as coined by Goldman Sachs? All ripe for investment and growth apparently and thus very important ones to watch for mobile and the impact THEY have on how WE do things in the future.
Look out for more predictions in the next few days.
Hopefully I can do better than 6 out of 10… in any case, here are my predictions for the coming year. Be sure to leave yours in the comments, or link to them on your own blog.
1. Apple won’t grow organic market share by much.
Sure, Apple will sell more phones as it expands the number of countries in which the iPhone is available. But it won’t make big inroads into existing markets, since pretty much everybody that wants an iPhone in those places has one already (or they’re getting one for Christmas). Any new models won’t appeal to a much wider crowd without adding something significantly new and cool — and just chunking in 3G isn’t enough.
2. Android won’t match the hype.
This feels like a bit of a cop-out, as nothing in the mobile industry ever matches the hype, but I’ll say it anyway. 2008 should see the first Android devices, and perhaps they’ll be pretty cool — but the market reaction will be mostly ho-hum. The big challenge for Google (and for Apple, as well), is to make people care about this stuff. It’s easy for enthusiasts and MH readers to get excited about new mobile data services and applications, but we need to remember that, generally, most members of the public don’t really care. I’d venture that the iPhone’s image as a really cool iPod with a big screen and a phone squeezed in, helped to sell way more devices than its nice web browser did. And sure, people think, “Google Maps on my phone, that sounds pretty cool,” — but when it comes time to pay for it, their enthusiasm may wane.
The iPhone and Android have made a lot of noise because they appeal to a very vocal, but very small, part of the market. But they’ll remain confined to that niche until Google, Apple, operators, other handset vendors, and the rest of the industry can get the mass market to care. Sure, the iPhone has created a lot of awareness, but that’s just a first step. Getting the public to really be interested in mobile services will do a lot more, in the long run, for Google (and everybody else) than coming up with the ultimate mobile software platform.
3. Ad-supported content will continue to grow, but there will be some friction as operators figure out how to insert themselves in the experience.
Individual publishers big and small will figure out they can make money from mobile ads in 2008, and for big publishers, this means a shift away from operator deals, and towards beefing up their standalone sites, both in content and visibility. But the problems will emerge as operators look to get in on the action. Things like content transcoders will become more popular, as operators look for a way to build up their advertising inventory.
4. The 700 MHz auction in the US will toss up an interesting license holder.
The auction for 700 MHz spectrum licenses gets underway in the US in January, and nearly 300 companies have been approved to bid. The usual suspects are there, along with the high-profile ones like Google. But somebody new/interesting/different is going to snag a license here, even if it costs them billions. There’s a tremendous opportunity for disruption here — both in the mobile market, but also in the fixed broadband one — and somebody is going to seize on it, even though it will carry a high cost.
5. Smartphone sales won’t accelerate much, as existing users get fed up with poor usability, and featurephones get smarter.
Smartphone sales continue to grow year after year, but 2008 could be something of a turning point. First, there are a lot of existing users that are fed up with the user experience their smartphones provide. Sure, they carry awesome functionality, but at the cost of terrible usability. Second, featurephones are getting better and “smarter”. The feature gap between the two is closing quickly, particularly for “normobs”, or normal mobile users. Combine these two trends and you’ll see normobs eschewing smartphones for lower-cost, more attractive and easier to use featurephones, alongside smartphone users abandoning the devices and giving up that extra functionality (plenty of which goes unused anyway) for the relatively better user experience many featurephones offer.
6. Euro 2008 and the Summer Olympics in Beijing will generate a decent amount of interest in mobile TV, but that interest won’t be sustained.
These two sporting events will put mobile TV in the shop window. There was a lot of talk about the 2006 World Cup in the same way, but it was too early. Mobile TV is common enough now that people will have some interest in following these events on their handsets, particularly if operators do some aggressive marketing (though operators in the UK are probably cursing second-choice Steve McClaren…). But it’s unlikely that after these events and the promotions end, all that many users will stick with the services.
7. Handset vendors will pay more attention, both lip service and real, to environmental issues.
Nokia’s already started down this path, with its new auto-shutoff charger and the green-targeted 3110 Evolve handset, but the “green” handset market will boom in 2008. There’s a lot of stuff that can be done that has real benefits, such as the new-style chargers, which don’t draw power then they’re not charging a device, and improved handset recycling programs. But there’s going to be a lot of fluff disguised as environmental action, too. In any case, there are great strides that can be made by handset vendors to make their products a bit more green, beyond simple lip service.
8. Embedded radios in consumer electronics will become much more commonplace.
The Kindle was the tip of the iceberg, as 2008 will see more and more devices featuring built-in mobile/cellular radios. The launch of Sprint’s WiMAX network in the US, as well as others worldwide, will help to drive this; so too will the “open” pledges by various operators, as well as the realization that there’s a significant market for them here if they’re willing to offer manufacturers some new business models.
9. Operators will wake up to the threat of IM and push e-mail to their messaging revenues.
Without question, SMS has been the most successful mobile data service of all time. Traffic continues to grow — but revenues aren’t keeping pace, and they’re under further threat from mobile IM and push e-mail. Forward-thinking operators will take a look at this space, and realize that mobile messaging needs an overhaul, and that a holistic approach combining disparate channels (SMS, e-mail, IM, social networks and so on) is the way forward.
10. “Open” will dominate the discussion in 2008.
This is another gimme: operators will fall all over themselves trying to persuade people that they’re open. Most of this will be BS, but there will be a few operators that actually, truly embrace openness, and they’ll shake up their markets.
So there you have it, ten things that will happen in mobile in 2008. As I said, be sure to leave your own predictions in the comments, or link to them on your own site. Enjoy a happy and safe holidays, and best wishes to everybody in the New Year!
It’s that time of the year again. As we move into the holidays, Carlo and I pick ten predictions for the year ahead for your delight and edification. Even more foolishly, we first review how we got on last year, which is unique, to my knowledge. For instance, even professional analysts aren’t that brave as they need their clients to generally believe that they’re right all the time and so to admit to fallibility would be shooting themselves in the foot.
We have no such qualms as it’s more a bit of fun and ultimately an exercise in showing just how hard making predictions is - if not impossible.
The impossibility of predictions is one of the subjects of my most interesting read of the year, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. One of his examples is if say, a US General had successfully predicted 9/11 and thrown up a huge air cordon around the twin towers, the terrorists wouldn’t have tried to attack and the hapless General would have been dismissed as a nutter.
And Mr Taleb doesn’t do predictions either.
So here’s my tally from last year:
1. 2007 will be the year of mobile user generated content.
Yes, I think that’s one in the bag for me. Sites like Peperonity and Itsmy have seen huge growth and have hundreds of thousands of passionate users. Add that to the multiple conferences and press coverage and we’ll look back on 2007 as the year that MugCon reached its tipping point.
The question for the future will be what happens when the mobile specialists collide with the web based giants as Facebook et al cross the mobile Tiber.
2. Usability
Usability would be at the forefront of mobile this year and again, I think this was pretty spot-on. Much of the fuss can be put down to the launch of the iPhone (more on that later), which catapulted usability into centre stage. But there’s lots of other signs too pointing that companies understand that usability is key to great mobile products.
If you’re planning a career change any time soon, becoming a usability guru for mobile would be a very solid and profitable option for the coming decade.
3. Bluetooth Unleashed
File sharing via Bluetooth is now huge among kids, but hard (if not impossible) to track as the files don’t travel via the networks. But talk to any kid aged 10 and over and they certainly know all about Bluetooth and invariably claim to be sharing content already.
Bluetooth file sharing is going to be an increasingly important use case in mobile and maybe there’s some business opportunities for some smart entrepreneurs out there. And I’m not talking about the Bluespammers.
4. Podcasting
I said that by now many people would be using their mobiles as their primary Podcasting consumption device. I also said that I’d have a tough time proving this one way or another!
I’d say that this predictions was a tad early. I have no doubt that mobiles are going to eat the specialist MP3 player market within the next two years or so. And therefore Podcasting will be injested along with the music, so ultimately I think this is a robust prediction. But with the exception of the Walkman range, I’d be surprised if this is as big as I was thinking.
So, I’ll give myself no points on that one, even though I’ll be right in the longer term.
5. Euro Data Tarriffs
I said that they’d begin to fall in 2007. This has definitely begun to happen in most markets that I track, although there’s a long way to go down in countries like Germany.
But I think I am safe to claim my point.
6. Mobile Marketing
I said we’d see an explosion in 2007 and I have the evidence close to hand. AdMob alone served its one Billionth ad in January 2007 and we’ll end the year at over 13 Billion. Incidentally, an interesting little factoid for you. The universe is reckoned to be 13.7 Billion years old, so sometime in January 2008, AdMob will have served more ads than the number of years in history. I don’t know why I find this interesting, other than I do.
Mobile marketing also saw the big boys making moves, especially Google’s disappointing foray. Let’s hope they do better next year.
7. Mobile Search
I wrote
So, 2007 and mobile search: lots of noise, mucho big announcements, very little actual user use. Its day will come and it’s obviously important that the big boys do their strategic deals in anticipation of that time. But usage won’t be big this year.
I think this is a pretty good assessment of what happened. But if you disagree with that, or with the others, have your say in the comments please.
8. PayPal Mobile
I predicted that 2007 would see some serious traction for the eBay owned giant, although serious success would be some way off.
I seem to have totally got this one wrong, though I don’t really understand what’s holding them up. They’ve got a good product, aren’t limited by startup budgets and constraints and a huge user base to leverage and yet…nothing seems to be happening.
Or if it is, they’re keeping things very quiet. Anyone know what gives?
9. LBS
But my overall thoughts for LBS is that outside a few trials, it’s going to be another disappointing and frustrating year. Don’t worry though, it’s time will come.
One point.
10. iPhone
I certainly got no points for this as I predicted a very disappointing launch for Apple - despite having correctly predicted it happening way before most (any?) others. I clearly completely underestimated the Apple fanboys’ willingness to buy anything made my Mr Jobs and Co, even if it’s not as great a product as the hype.
The reasons why it’s a poor product such as slow surfing, poor text inputting and lack of enterprise support are well documented. But it’s shininess and sexyness won the day and Round One has been a staggering success - enough even to persuade operators to share voice and data revenues in an unprecedented move. I bet Nokia is burning with envy.
Obviously, we’ll see V2 of the iPhone next year as well as a bunch of iPhone-inspired competitors and that will set the scene for the future. Will it be a one hit wonder or will Apple be a major player in the mobile space? I’d bet on the former, but I think I’ve learned my lesson about trying to predict anything where Apple is concerned.
So in summary, I’ll give myself a disappointing 7 out of 10 this year, proving if nothing else that making predictions is a mug’s game. Get them right and everyone forgets how hard it was to call them a whole year ago. Get them wrong and people scratch their heads and wonder how you could have misjudged things so badly. But not to foresee the iPhone success - mea culpa!
Have a go yourself, why don’t you? Leave a comment below or do it on your own blog and link to here. Carlo and I need to get our wizard hats on and conjure up next year’s key events.
It’s nearly the end of the year, which means it’s time yet again for Russell and I to do our now world-famous predictions for the coming year. I’ll kick things off by going over my predictions for 2007, then we’ll follow with our thoughts on 2008 later in the week. I scored 7.5 points out of 10 with my 2006 predictions; hopefully I can beat that. So away we go:
1. Lots of mobile TV hype, but little in the way of actual success: “CES saw some high-profile mobile TV from US operators and providers, and the news of launches will continue around the world this year. However, the actual results won’t match the hype, particularly in the US.”
Check. Plenty of mobile TV launches this year, but still very few actual users and revenues.
2. Widgetization: “There have been plenty of widget-style platforms for mobile already, but 2007 will see them take off as web content providers look for ways to offer easy access to their content and services, while users demand it.”
2007 certainly saw more widget platforms get launched, but did any of them really gain a lot of traction? Certain ones like Nokia’s Widsets have attracted a decent user base, but they’re far from being a mass-market phenomenon. Think I was a bit ahead of the curve on this one.
3. Mobile data services for automobiles will take off.: “For some time, automakers have been toying with building mobile data connections into cars — for instance, I remember seeing a BMW at CeBIT a few years back that could get traffic data and other info. But 2007 will see these services blow up.”
“Blow up” is a strong term, but I’ll give myself half a point here. Ford and Microsoft’s Sync system launched, and has gotten good reviews, while XM and Sirius’ information systems are working their way into the market. I think this will continue to grow, both with in-vehicle systems in new cars, and through connecting standalone nav units to mobile phones.
4. Mobile social networking doesn’t do much, but the action’s in mobile social media.: “Watch for media sharing apps and services to thrive this year, while big-name social-networking stutters on mobile.”
Well, the statement “I’m not convinced that people necessarily want or need access to their MySpace account from their phone” was pretty wide of the mark, but I’ll again give myself half a point here. There is a demand for social networking services delivered to people’s mobiles, but things are evolving to a more media-sharing-centric model than simply replicating the same experience as on a desktop browser. See Facebook’s BlackBerry app, YouTube mobile, Helio’s YouTube app, and so on.
5. Full-track music downloads over mobile will largely fail, leading operators and content providers to finally realize there are other aspects to mobile music.: “It’s not hard to understand why users avoid most mobile music stores: they’re overpriced and unappealing. That doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon, really, but operators will this year begin broadening their music offerings on a larger scale.”
I get a point here: full-track download stores’ sales remain low, but operators are starting to offer other services, like Vodafone’s MusicStation. Watch this space for more changes next year.
6. Mobile search will continue to run in place.
Check. This is an area where the hype continues to significantly outpace real usage.
7. More flat-rate data — and hopefully affordable flat-rate data — in Europe.: “More and more European operators will begin to realize this in 2007, and abandon their shocking, stupid and incomprehensible data charges.”
Flat-rate data plans certainly proliferated in Europe during the year, so I’ll take a point here too. As for abandoning shocking, stupid and incomprehensible tariffs, the jury is still out.
8. VoWi-Fi’s real impact will be limited to some pricing pressure on certain types of calls.: “ure, there will be more WiFi hotspots built in 2007, and more cities will build out hotzones and muni Wi-Fi deployments. But that’s going to be matched by a realization of the flaws of many of these networks, and further proof that they’re far, far away from being anywhere near capable of replacing cellular networks for voice service.”
No points here, if only because VoWi-Fi had essentially zero impact on the market in 2007.
9. There will be plenty of launches of WiMAX networks and others based on non-traditional or new mobile broadband technologies, but their largest impact will be felt by fixed-line broadband providers.
Check. I’m hard pressed to think of a mobile operator that’s quaking in its boots because of a WiMAX launch in 2007.
10. 10. Mobile payments will struggle in the west, but they’ll be supplanted by other RFID applications in handsets.
Ahead of the curve again here. Payments didn’t make a lot of ground, though we did see announcements like the test of integrating Transport for London’s Oyster card into mobiles.
6 out of 10. Not a great performance, though I hurt myself by being a bit too forward-thinking 
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will Voda Spain balls things up like Voda UK?
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maybe next year will be “the year of mobile music”… again
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setting up shop in Nokia’s US backyard…
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barely better looking than the one from the other day…
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