The Cord Continues to Fray

I’ve been writing for a long time now about how more and more people are cutting the cord, by ditching landlines and going exclusively mobile. And it seems the trend is accelerating reports El Reg. This also casts a big dollop of shiny doubt over the wisdom of any kind of quad play strategy.

Consulting firm, Analysys, have written a new report on this called “The Acceleration of Fixed-Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: facts and figures”, which forecasts that among other nuggets, 50% of all European calls will be mobile by as soon as next year.

In advanced mobile markets, like Finland, already 74.6% of calls are made from mobile phones. More traditionalist Germany has 24.3% of calls made from mobiles, but the common theme is the growth of mobile at the expense of landlines.

If you work for a fixed telephony business only, I’m afraid you were already screwed a few years ago when the trend started to become obvious to some of us. It doesn’t mean that you haven’t got a healthy cash cow you’ll be able to milk for a good few years yet, but it’s probably time you gave up your marketing overhead for a start, I’m afraid. And it’s too late to do much about it now.

But looking on the positive side of things, “one number for life” now seems to be a realistic prospect, rather than some sci-fi fantasy. A new baby will get a slap on the bum, her mobile number for life (fully globally portable, of course) and wireless ear buds for their music soundtrack of their first 5 years of living.

The year? 2015. What’s your guess?

—–>Follow us on Twitter too: @russellbuckley and @caaarlo

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  • Hi Russell

    I think there's a common misperception that fixed=PSTN. There's a huge blurring going on because of VoIP, with a fair amount of traffic flipping from circuit-based PSTN to fixed/Internet/WiFi VoIP, especially lucrative traffic like international calls. I'm thinking about the growth of SkypeOut, or PSTN-replacement VoIP services here.

    There's also a hard core of calls which will never go mobile - especially in the enterprise. I've continually challenged mobile operators to show me a customer-service call centre where all the agents use cellphones, for example. Similarly, plenty of calls are to places, not people, for which a shared fixed phone is optimal. Unless you know the name of the guy that cooks the pizza, or the woman who does reservations at the hotel, that is....

    I totally disagree with the "one number for life" notion. Already something like 20-30% of people in Europe have 2+ mobile numbers, plus probably a fixed-line number and 3-5 email addresses & Internet IDs.

    The whole ridiculous "one number, one device, one service provider, one voicemail, one identity" concept is fading away as it becomes painfully obvious that exactly the opposite thing will occur. Individuals will have an expanding multiplicity of numbers & contact mechanisms. Some will be linked, others kept safely separate.

    Dean
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