Is the post-voice mobile era upon us? Stats out of the UK show a significant drop in the number of voice calls both pre- and postpaid users are making each week. Last year, prepay users made an average of 14 calls per week; this year, it’s down to 10. Postpaid users similarly fell, from 35 to 27. Prepay users’ texting levels held steady, but postpaid users are now sending almost 50% more texts each week.
What’s interesting is this is happening as voice prices are falling, too — resulting in significantly lower spending, according to the survey. It says prepaid spending is down from £19.29 per month to £12.35 per month, while postpaid is off 20 percent. I’m not sure just how much I buy into the spending figures, though, as looking over the ARPU stats for Vodafone and T-Mobile for the last couple of years don’t show a similar level of disruption (and their subscriber growth doesn’t make me think people are flocking to cut-rate providers).
Anyhow, it’s worth noting the apparent drop in call volume. People are talking less, texting more — and, hopefully, using more data services in spite of the tariffs. To our readers in the UK: are you talking less, or have you noticed any change in people’s behavior? Perhaps we’re running out of things to say, or are even more fully embracing the brevity and non-verbal communication offered by SMS, email or IM. Maybe people are figuring out that they want to talk less on their mobiles, and do more with them.
Hi Carlo (and Russell) and readers of MobHappy
Great catch ! Wow, surprising finding. I’ve seen as global trends, both the number of calls placed on mobile networks and the length of calls (in voice minutes) growing year on year, network to network. Last year, globally, showed this overall trend.
But the UK has been rapid in adoption of SMS text messaging, and in frequent cases the need to contact someone is better served via SMS than by attempting to call (for example if one of the two is in a meeting at work). Equally other times SMS is very inefficient and a voice call serves the need better (when one of the two is driving a car for example).
I think the UK is becoming rather mature in how its customers understand mobile phones (over 115% penetration rate meaning 85% have a phone and approaching 30% have two or more subscriptions). The UK is also one of Europe’s more mature SMS markets - where 85% of Brits send SMS and usage is nearing 2 SMS sent per day (levels of Ireland and Norway the European leaders a year ago). Both of these are well ahead of the European average.
I think one important factor also is the Dual SIM economics. We tend to measure most mobile behaviour by subscription, for example the classic operator revenue metric is ARPU Average Revenue Per User which in reality is Average Revenue Per Subscription. When almost one in three Brits has two or more subscriptions, to mistake subscriber for user makes dramatic errors in these kinds of metrics. For example the UK average reported “ARPU” by subscriber of about 20 UKP per month in reality means about 26 UKP per User, when calculated against the actual phone users and the revenue generated by their multiple subscriptions
So similarly, if we actually measure the usage by subscription (which prepay, which postpay account, how much telecoms traffic) - and a significant portion of the users have two or more subscriptions, then yes, the outbound calls per subscription may be falling by the average - but still INCREASE when by users.
This to me seems also logical, intuitive. We get a second subscription, we optimize our traffic. We also take advantage of the lowering rates and call more. But when measured, the behaviour on our Vodafone account may be down, but the new Orange account is new traffic.
Still - in very sharp contrast throughtout the story is the opposite finding of SMS text messaging. Still, no matter how much in reality per user the voice calls may be going down - or becoming longer - or not, regardless the SMS text messaging, both per user and per subscriber - are up. Quarter upon quarter upon quarter. Year after year after year. There is no stopping it. SMS is addictive, and its pattern just keeps repeating.
A fascinating finding Carlo, thanks !
Tomi Ahonen
author, blogger, podcaster
http://www.tomiahonen.com
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