2007 Predictions – The Final One

Well, I couldn’t resist it and my final prediction is going to be about the iPhone – though it would be kinda cheating to just say that it’s just going to be launched.

I’ve been thinking about it a lot over the last few weeks and quite honestly, I don’t think this is going to be the success that Apple are clearly hoping for. So, despite Steve Job’s own prediction of 10 million sales by 2008, my forecast is less than 100,000 units will be sold in 2007.

Thinking about these numbers, it would be reasonable to suggest that they’d expect to sell more in 2008 than 2007 by what? 40:60? Then they are also only launching halfway through the year and mostly in the US. So if they were on track, very roughly, they’d expect to sell around 240,000 handsets (assuming the US market is about 120 million mobiles a year, they want 1% and they’re only selling for 6 months). So my 100,000 forecast would have to be disappointing for them.

My rationale is well documented elsewhere, but it includes no 3G, no enterprise email support (which will be an automatic dis-qualifier for most corporates) and it’s an expensive gadget. My feeling is that by June, the iPhone will also feel like old news to many people, so I wonder about the wisdom about pre-announcing it too.

My initial take was that despite all this I would buy one, but you know, I don’t think I would. Mainly as my killer app these days is email on the phone for when I travel. This isn’t unique to me and many people who might have considered spending this kind of money simply won’t. Many geeks won’t go there either as it’s currently a closed platform and¬†they won’t be able to install many of the apps they use daily.

My initial reaction was that the legacy of the iPhone would be that (like the Sex Pistols) it would be hugely influential and¬†create a lot of noise, but someone would make all the money and in hindsight, I think that’s a pretty good take now I’ve had a chance to mull.

So, 2007 – less than 100,000 iPhones.

What do you think?

 

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