Well, I couldn’t resist it and my final prediction is going to be about the iPhone - though it would be kinda cheating to just say that it’s just going to be launched.
I’ve been thinking about it a lot over the last few weeks and quite honestly, I don’t think this is going to be the success that Apple are clearly hoping for. So, despite Steve Job’s own prediction of 10 million sales by 2008, my forecast is less than 100,000 units will be sold in 2007.
Thinking about these numbers, it would be reasonable to suggest that they’d expect to sell more in 2008 than 2007 by what? 40:60? Then they are also only launching halfway through the year and mostly in the US. So if they were on track, very roughly, they’d expect to sell around 240,000 handsets (assuming the US market is about 120 million mobiles a year, they want 1% and they’re only selling for 6 months). So my 100,000 forecast would have to be disappointing for them.
My rationale is well documented elsewhere, but it includes no 3G, no enterprise email support (which will be an automatic dis-qualifier for most corporates) and it’s an expensive gadget. My feeling is that by June, the iPhone will also feel like old news to many people, so I wonder about the wisdom about pre-announcing it too.
My initial take was that despite all this I would buy one, but you know, I don’t think I would. Mainly as my killer app these days is email on the phone for when I travel. This isn’t unique to me and many people who might have considered spending this kind of money simply won’t. Many geeks won’t go there either as it’s currently a closed platform and they won’t be able to install many of the apps they use daily.
My initial reaction was that the legacy of the iPhone would be that (like the Sex Pistols) it would be hugely influential and create a lot of noise, but someone would make all the money and in hindsight, I think that’s a pretty good take now I’ve had a chance to mull.
So, 2007 - less than 100,000 iPhones.
What do you think?
Judging by the interest in the iPhone and the fact that 90% of consumers don’t want to do anything more than text, call and use a basic camera on their phone I would say it will easily sell 10 million units in the US alone.
I don’t think they had much choice in announcing it early…
Frankly I couldn’t agree more. Apple does have a loyal customer base who (slavishly?) buy the Apple version of every gadget they need. But the iPhone does indeed look like a very pretty PDA and no 3G, no email and no decent texting function will surely stop it being sold in really big numbers.
I think you’re bang on the money with this one. And you’re right about being influential. When Jade Goody (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Goody) is ranked #25 of influential people in the world (sheesh!), iPhone has gotta be up there.
It’ll produce more copy-cat un-tactile physical interfaces (touch-screens), which will come - then go… buttons work best. Greasy fingerprints optimal reading of tiny text!
It’ll change voicemail (into a handset client solution), although probably not until IMS comes around, and only if the MajorMobileOperators relinquish the 30% of revenues that come from voicemail usage! - ahh, so it won’t change voicemail after all - sorry.
It’ll produce cheaper, flimsy-er clones from Korea et al. (already has at least one), that do everything it does and more - and with an open-ish OS (symbian, MS, Linux).
Not sure we’ve moved the industry on a step, have we, Mr Jobs?
Rather than moved the industry, Apple has steered it by endorsing the concepts that many of us have been talking about for years (such as full web browsing, widgets and a good music experience.) Like you Russ, I also wanted one last week. This week I feel like its too much money for something that will not let me use my browser of choice (Opera Mini) or hold less video than my video iPod. But I think apple is in it for the long run and the following generations will do better…
Russ
I feel that the answer lies somewhere between Apple’s wild predictions and your conservative estimate. 100,000 units would be a disaster for Jobs and he wouldn’t let such a flagship product take the sheen off his well-polished brand.
V2 could well be 3G. Or not. Who knows?
My understanding is that developers will be able to develop applications. Regular Email will work nicely (enterprises are never going to spend iPhone money anyway). Browsing will be OK. Not fantastic, but better than on comparable devices.
The Koreans will bring some competition, true. But Americans are starved of feature-rich handsets and will be impatient. I am predicting queues at Apple and Cingular stores of Wii proportions. And at least 7m units by end-2008.
More than anything else, iPhone is a status symbol. I know that’s not a good excuse to buy one, but that’s just the way it is.
Another prediction for 2007. iPhone Nano. Let’s start a rumour!!
See you soon
marc