I wrote a post a couple of weeks ago, for which I was gleefully called out on by some Apple fan boys. Basically, I predicted that the iPod quarterly sales would decline again due to strong growth in phone-based MP3 players – a triumph for the Conversionists over their gang rivals, the¬†Separatistas.
In the event, I was wrong. The iPod did show a small growth after two quarters of decline. But never one to stop banging my drum until proved conclusively wrong, I still think the days are very numbered for the stand-alone MP3. In fact, sales of the converged MP3 mobile are so rampant that they already considerably out-number pure plays.
According to the latest from Nokia, they already sell more phones with MP3’s that iPod’s annualised sales. iPod sold 8.7 million last quarter, which gives them an annualised sale of 32.8 million – OK, let’s be generous and say 40 million, to take into account Christmas and other seasonal fluctuations.
Last year, Nokia sold 46.5 million and expect to sell 100 million this year.
Now the last refuge for the Separatistas will be “Yeah, but just coz people can use their phone’s MP3 players doesnt mean that they will. I mean, like, I never use my phone’s calculator.”
Well, according to Nokia 2 out of 3 people already use this part of the phone’s facilities, so that doesn’t really wash either. In fact, doing the maths for you, more than 20 million more people will use Nokia MP3 players this year than buy iPods.
Now, I’m sure we’ll get some usual suspects saying “but, but, but..” and yes, I appreciate that some people will always prefer to use a stand-alone device for the foreseeable future – myself included, by the way. But, let’s face it, the battle for the mainstream has already been fought and won. The Conversionists have taken this field and are already setting their sites on video cameras.
[tags] ipod, separatista, convergionist, nokia, mp3 [/tags]