Latest from Gartner is that Smartphone sales are soaring, eagle-like, into the ether, with an increase in sales of 75%. During the same period, PDA sales barely rose 5%, with Palm not even bothering to launch a new model in 2006 at all. Their renewed focus on the Treo sends out its own message that it really is Game Over for this sector.
The smartphone sector is now 4 times as big as PDAs and this trend will now accelerate to the extinction of PDAs as a category.
The last bastion for the PDA is the US, with over 50% of worldwide sales. Maybe, that’s why Microsoft think the battle of Palm v Windows is even vaguely relevant to the big picture. As I wrote over a year ago, it’s like two bald, old men, fighting over a comb. Even Palm seem to have realised this today.
Next target for the mobile is the stand alone MP3 player, about to be consigned to a historical curiosity, as one of the fastest product life cycles - from launch to extinction -ever to be launched.
Interesting! I couldn’t find the piece on Gartner’s web site though - what’s the URL please?
Thanks
Steve
I bought a non-GSM mobile device earlier this year, although it has WLAN and Bluetooth … it’s great as a mobile Skype handset.
This is definitely a growth area.
Next target for the mobile is the stand alone MP3 player, about to be consigned to a historical curiosity, as one of the fastest product life cycles - from launch to extinction -ever to be launched.
Horespooky! Today, in 1 year, in 2 years, in 5 years, if I were to offer a passerby on the streat the option of a free iPod or free MP3-ified mobile handset which do you think they would choose?
Oh yah, and the looser that actually chose the mp3-handset will be running back to me a few days later begging and pleading to reconsider when they have to actually fill the device with music at $2.95 a pop.
-Doug
Douglass - each to his own opinion, my friend. The camera industry said exactly the same thing 6 years ago and look what happened. And so did the PDA industry, for that matter, only 3 years ago.
You’re also assuming that over the air downloads will be the only way to get music on your phone/mp3 ie they can’t still be sideloaded via a PC, as we do today.
And I also don’t believe that MP3 players will disappear altogether as there’ll always be people who prefer them for their own quirky reasons. But as far as a mass-market concept, my bet is that the dedicated MP3 player has already had its day.
The nice thing about blogging is that we can see who’s right in a couple of year’s time
Cheers
Russell
Russell,
Side loading is a bit fiddly, no? The rational for handset mp3 is over the air delivery. The use case is Russell hearing a cool tune blaring from a passing car and then immediately texting the great music box in the sky to download and listen. It is a gesture, an impulse. Side loadings takes far too much thought.
The much larger issue of course is the glaring fact that operators have no history of every delivering a compelling user experience beyond voice and sms (which the stumble across anyway). The iPod experience goes far beyond the physical device. It consists of a series of small delightful pleasing interactive moments that are simply sublime.
We simply have never seen this on Planet Mobile. I doubt we ever will.
-Doug
OTA is only on rationale for handset mp3, having one less gadget to carry is the major one in my view. Side loading fiddly? It’s less so on some mobiles than on an iPod…
It’s a personal view, but I think the iPod is lagging further behind every year, where’s the Bluetooth headset support? Why do I have use a wire to get music onto the thing? Why’s the battery non-replacable? etc. etc.
PDAs will survive in the shape of smartphones: Palm Treo, Sony Ericsson P and M series, Nokia E and Communicator series, RIM BlackBerry etc. It’s still the same audience more or less.
Not all smartphones are PDA-like though. Most are actually mainstream Nokia phones running Symbian OS / Series 60 and are bought as mainstream phones. As I haven’t seen the report I don’t know if Gartner also included all Series 60 phones in the stats.
[...] It seems like the PDA days are over. Smart phones have won the battle and that’s good news for Nokia and bad news for Microsoft. As Russel Buckley summarizes well: “The last bastion for the PDA is the US, with over 50% of worldwide sales. Maybe, that’s why Microsoft think the battle of Palm v Windows is even vaguely relevant to the big picture. As I wrote over a year ago, it’s like two bald, old men, fighting over a comb. Even Palm seem to have realised this today. [...]
[...] Research firm Gartner have reported a worldwide slow-down in the sale of PDAs, with global sales increasing only 5% in the last year, and Palm not bothering to release a new model in 2006 at all, according to a post on MobHappy. [...]
Russell,
New into the mobile space I am once again confused as to what exactly makes a mobile a smart phone vs. a pda or normal cell. Can you explain the difference?
Nathan - traditionally, I think it’s fair to say that a PDA didn’t have voice functionality, though PDAs and Smartphones are converging. See more here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_digital_assistant
Russell
[...] Some good commentary this week from Russell in The PDA is Dead, Long Live the Smartphone. Latest from Gartner is that Smartphone sales are soaring, eagle-like, into the ether, with an increase in sales of 75%. During the same period, PDA sales barely rose 5%, with Palm not even bothering to launch a new model in 2006 at all. Their renewed focus on the Treo sends out its own message that it really is Game Over for this sector. The smartphone sector is now 4 times as big as PDAs and this trend will now accelerate to the extinction of PDAs as a category. [...]
[...] Russell Buckley has recently suggested that PDA’s will disappear in favour of smart phones and other commentators seem to be agreeing with that. This is the trend in Asia and Europe seems to be following the trend. Now Palm is confirming the trend with the launch of the Treo 700wx Smartphone. Timo Poropudas points out that 52 companies are now producing Windows Mobile devices. So is ‘Smaller Is Better’ the new trend? [...]