A new survey by hosting group, Hostway, has found that 27% of UK mobile users browse the mobile web.
This is uncannily close to the last M:Metrics’ data I saw, which put it at 29%. Whatever the exact figure, I think it’s pretty remarkable that WAP has progressed this far and it’s certainly not a case of 73% DON’T use it, as most journos have spun the story, but that usage has passed the Innovators, moved through the Early Adopters and sits somewhere in the Early Majority community. Several chasms have now been crossed and once that happens, ubiquity is inevitable. Within two years now, WAP usage will be the same as sms, which is a truly remarkable turnaround for a protocol which has been ignored in marketing terms by our operator friends for the last 3 years or so.
The survey went on to state such bleeding obvious “issues” that people were put off by slow loading sites, poor navigation and the fact that 25% of sites were simply inaccessible via a mobile. For me, the fact that 27% of people persevere and put up with these real issues is the truly remarkable stat.
Lest we forget, slow connection and poor navigation are not issues unique to the mobile web - we’ve been here before with these exact same problems 10 years ago with the computer web. Once you’ve “surfed” the net with a 14.4 kb modem, you truly understand the meaning of slow. So taking 1997 as a snap shot comparison, a mere 3% of UK households were accessing the web back then. While it’s clearly comparing oranges with mutant bananas, I still think it speaks volumes that we’re around 9 times ahead of the old computer world in terms of accessing the web via the mobile.
So the future is really looking bright for WAP and the mobile web now. As speed increases and as site designers finally realize that there’s more to a mobile web site than simply copying the full web version, the reasons for non-usage will gradually disappear. As more and more users finally start using the mobile web, it’ll become clear to everyone that the future of the web is mobile and we’ll smile nostalgically at those hulking great machines we used to hook up to the digital world with - what we call computers, nowadays.
First of all, it should be pointed out that mobile web != WAP. What about the usage of “real” web browsers used on mobile phones, what are they classified under if not mobile web also?
Secondly, I find it incredibly difficult to believe that WAP usage would ever reach SMS usage - the other kind of mobile browsing, definately eventually, but WAP? Never.
So in my biased opinion, I’d say the WAP glass is at least 3/4 empty and leaking fast.
True, you can prove anything with statistics, and media will with 100% certainty draw distorted conclusions ;).
Yet…
(I don’t have the survey report, so I’m speculating a bit on the meaning of the figures)
That users have tried out mobile browsing doesn’t mean anything. That’s like concluding that if 27% of the population has tried marijuana would mean 27% are drug addicts, which of course no one would think was a fair conclusion.
The really interesting thing is how much revenue does it generate, and how much potential for more revenue growth is there. Does it even have “hockey stick” potential? A survey won’t cover that of course, but in this industry we are way too little taking that extra step to prove that such results actually mean anything, revenue- or other-wise.
What users wants to do by default is to browse normal web sites and get good results from that, so WAP is actually a don’t care from that point of view, unless it’s used via a Web-to-WAP gateway.
More interesting is the fact that there are now many startups offering mobile-enabling of popular e-mail, IM, blog, media sharing and social network services. I’m convinced this will be the real driver for mobile data growth. WAP, Java, SMS, MMS and e-mail come in as handy enablers here, and all modern phones support them. I provide more arguments for this way of thinking in my recent “Finding volume drivers for mobile data” piece.
Nice summary. I’m in the ½ full camp.
But, I still know very few people who regularly use the web, or whatever, on their mobiles. I guess, maybe I mix in the wrong circles.
Hostway’s research shows the lack of demand for the mobile Internet is due to frustration of slow loading pages, navigation difficulties and sites that don’t work on mobiles, which I would agree with.
People expect the Internet on mobile phones to look like and feel exactly the same as on a PC. Asking web developers to create special mobile versions of their sites with limited images and content is hugely time intensive and won’t give consumers what they really want.
In the US, the mobile Internet is taking off at an astounding pace, thanks to some of the world’s largest ISPs and mobile operators implementing network-level solutions. These solutions automatically adapt the original site to the mobile device’s physical and functional capabilities, providing excellent content presentation on even the smallest mobile device, and can resolve all the issues relating to slow loading pages, navigation and sites that don’t work.
Eran:
- Do you have any names of such gateway providers?
- What’s needed in the phone?
My view on this is that everybody thinks that the mobilisation of the web will be the leader to generate usage of the mobile internet. I disagree, - reasons later.
We all know and appreciate the form/factor of the mobile device will not replace the PC based (fixed location) web access, but it does offer internet access everywhere.
Building on the basis that mobile internet can be more accessible than PC based internet access it STILL needs to be developed into a viral/network building web of mobile specific internet sites. Why? To develop more mobile based media/personal web sites - not just commercial mobile web sites that wish to sell ringtones.
Web internet sites range from crude/basic/rubbish to web 2.0, ajax intensive, RoR based, stylish, do all/be all sites that encompass the coolest features for PC based access to the web site. These internet properties will find it difficult to switch mentality over to thinking of the mobile users and to the large mobile audience that is available worldwide - and then catering for them via the large number of different device types. (not just browser characteristics in this game). It is going to be a painful journey for PC centric web companies.
At present the WWW is so lucrative that many companies cannot/do not engage in the mobile arena as it does not appear to be as big as their present hunting ground. I wonder how many web 2.0 companies have mobile strategies and are including the mobile into their plans? Mobile usage in the USA may not be as large as Scandinavia, but look out USA, the mobile usage will climb and climb.
In the future, the fact is that the mobile will overtake the PC for internet access. The audience will be larger. The revenue potential may be more lucrative based on the consumer base. The mobile is not just about having access to your email everywhere or buying a ringtone its about having access to the net in a form/function that is a good user experience.
Within the future development of the mobile web, we will see skilled web/mobile published commercial sites and many iterations from there down to the casual user/single person mobile site. The fact is though, is that we need to generate the social building of the mobile internet rather than the rapid commercialisation of the mobile net - as we see with the ringtone sales web sites.
The age of the mobile shops is fading (aka Monstermob). People with a mobile want more from the mobile internet than to be able to pay crazy money for a ‘frog’ type ringtone. The key to successfully building the mobile internet is NOT known, but it is worth a good bet that it will be built virally from the actual users of the mobile net and not the commercial vendors that exist now.
We have a major battle in the future to educate the people that used to pay large amounts for a ringtone to trust the new mobile web that is emerging and it is NOT based on BUY. BUY. BUY. The mobile internet needs to emerge on discovery and learning BUT the mobile operators and independant content suppliers that believe they have the finger on the pulse with only offering products for sale will not contribute to this new mobile web. The operators are just a pipe (sorry), but they need to to organise data charges so that they stimulate usage of the mobile web, Otherwise all the vendors will bypass them.
Any other opinions?
PS. I am aware of the existing value chains in the industry but we will see that in the future web/mobile based social networks will be powerful and that the billing function that mobile operators have with customers does not mean they own the customer - look out guys.
Lots of great points made here - I’m in the optimist - 1/4 full camp.
I’ve been playing around with WAP since 1999 and it has taken a long time to even get to this adoption or trial statistic. With the speeds of the new networks and the devices that are out and coming out, I think that adoption is only going increase on the mobile web, whether that is over a phone or browsing on a Blackberry or any wireless device.
We have decided to use XHTML (WAP 2.0 - whatever) for mobile after considering Java and BREW applications because every phone ships with a browser and the browsers are getting better and better. With mobile video and camera functionality catching digital cameras as well as other multimedia functions, the mobile phone is going to be not only your ‘capturing device’ but your remote access to all your and your friends’ digital media.
There definitely is potential in the mobile web - we will see how much the adoption grows in the next 12 to 18 months, I’m betting is that it will.
Rewriting web pages on the fly to convert them to “mobile-friendly” versions of themselves (like Google and others do now) will obviously never work as well as actually catering to those mobile users in a real way. It’s really a half-hearted stepping stone to keep from scaring away so many users from a broken mobile web.
In my own experience, I’ve definitely seen WAP gaining huge amounts of traction in recent days, and it’s the high-end handsets that are making it possible — smartphones, large screens/high res, high speed networks, better browsers, etc. It’s in everyone’s interest to move the mobile web forward like this, so it’s the handset and network as well as generating awareness with users. Even so, a mobile site will still today get a fraction of a percentage of the traffic that its desktop counterpart gets.
The phone is a really tough thing to get around on, so I think it’s going to be a bit harder to communicate to users to key in some particular web page that isn’t linked on the carrier’s deck. I’m hoping that some of this can be resolved by doing promotion cross-media, e.g. sending a WAP push from a desktop site to get onto the mobile version of the site.. It would be interesting to hear about other ideas people have to get more visitors into the mobile web.
Sidebars and widgets are taking off and what are they really, small representations of data in a small convient place on your desktop. Google and yahoo are pushing them and i think Vista is going to ship with the sidebar on by default. I’d like to see a widget or sidebar that can host a j2me, brew or flash lite app. Could be a new revenue stream for mobile app companies that gets around the carrier tax.
If widgets and sidebars don’t die like dahsboards did and someone can show joe user that he can get the same info on his mobile that he can get from his sidebar, it could be a catalyst. On the mobile it’s small representations of data in a small convient place on your person.
A nice thing would be to have a sidebar that can host say 9 windows of info (scores, news, stocks…) and a mobile app that can switch between those 9 with the number pad. just thoughts.
I’m in the 1/4 full camp. If i wasn’t I probably wouldn’t be making a mobile website
I think WAP will remain a niche product. It segments the Internet by requiring seperate infrastructure and different content. XHTML is now posied to replace HTML and allow it to scale to smaller screens. The biggest problem in the mobile world is that the Internet has no idea of the devices terminal capabilities. WAP/WML was designed to solve that problem - however the screens are all too small on a candy bar phone to be practical. The PocketPC/Blackberry is much better. XHTML works well, J2ME still has an increibly long way to go, however they are all getting there.
What developers really want though is an easy way to determine the devices “actual” capabilities. With that in hand the can send the appropriate content. And for those techies reading this - user_agent is NOT the way to go. It doesn’t solve the problem, neither does J2ME for that matter.
I wouldn’t develop for WAP devices, not when Microsoft is coming on strong with Windows Mobile and the PocketPC.
Well, lots of interesting comments - here’s my 2c worth.
I’m definitely in the 1/4 full side - I need to be, I’ve bet my business on it. I’ve been watching/working the whole WAP/i-mode/mobile internet space for quite a while - since 1999 or so.
The way I look at it, I dont differentiate significantly between WAP, I-mode, PDA, or any other mobile internet technology. They are all positive. The issues though are:
a) download speed - this is well on the way to being solved by 3G and beyond
b) cost of downloads - still a huge issue. The Operators need to bite the bullet and have serious download bundles at reasonable prices - it just isn’t feasible for most punters today to surf outside the operator’s portals at the extortionate prices they are being charged, particularly as the content gets richer.
c) handset capabilities - this is still a minefield. Thankfully handsets are getting much better, however the range of capabilities of each phone means it is very difficult for developers to ensure their sites will work on all handsets. As a result, they either design high-end smartphone-only sites, or low-end, text-based sites, which are not particularly inviting
I’m a firm believer that mobile sites should be designed for mobile devices (dynamically transforming websites to mobile doesn’t work IMHO). They can still utilise the underlying web business logic, I just think they should be designed to deliver the content that relative to mobile users, with as few clicks a possible.
The difficulty is making sure mobile sites are optimised for each device. There are (very expensive) solutions out there that can help, but these make the cost of development prohibitive.
d) amount of available useful content -
Because developing mobile sites is typically complex and costly and the usage numbers are still quite low, the ROI is very difficult to justify. As a result relatively few sites get built.
Hopefully, through companies like my own, this is changing as tools and services become available that enable mobile site development and deployment as simple as web development and as reasonably priced as web hosting.
In summary, mobile internet is certainly here to stay. We may not have hit the bend in the hockey stick yet, but it will come sooner or later.
WAP - or Industry-wide Accepted Standards?…
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