Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a very interesting analytical tool, which I’ve written about before.

The first two parts of the cycle posit:

“… first climb a steep “hype” curve, as pundits describe the benefits and paradigm-shifting characteristics of the technology.

Next, they plummet into a “trough of disillusionment” as inflated expectations get pushed aside by the reality of performance.

I was reminded of this by none other than the New York Times.

Carlo wrote last week about how News Corp’s plans to launch some text alerts and mobile wallpaper under the Mobizzo label was greeted gushingly by the NYT as if Murdoch was some kind of revolutionary.

Then yesterday, an altogether more sombre piece concludes that:

For now, though, it seems premature to set the buzz for wireless at anything but the low setting.

From hype to disillusionment in less than a week. Very impressive.

But what readers of MobHappy will know (and the poor readers of the NYT won’t, sadly) is that the truth is somewhat different. Yes, there’s a revolution happening, but like all revolutions, the incumbents are hardly going to overthrow themselves, are they?

If I might be so bold as to offer the venerable NYT some advice - if you want to see the revolution that is happening, you’re looking in the wrong place.