The results of two mobile TV trials in the UK have been released, with plenty of stories painting the service as The! Next! Big! Thing! But both of these trials raise as many questions as they answer. Russell mentioned yesterday how the results of the first trial showed people were more interested in — and spent more time — listening to the radio than watching TV on their handsets, but the spin is clearly turned on over at BT Movio, talking about “consumer thirst” for mobile TV.
The results of another trial have been released today, and the BBC’s taken the bait hook, line and sinker. O2 and Nokia tested a DVB-H network with 400 people in the Oxford area, and 76 percent of them said they’d take up the service within twelve months — a stat which may get the headlines, but doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Beeb says “According to their results, 36% of people used the service mainly at home, compared to 23% at work or university and 28% while on the move.” So people in a mobile TV trial mostly used the service at home?
Nearly a third of people in the trial only get the country’s 5 analog channels at home, so it would follow that offering them several new channels on the mobile could lead to an increase in viewing. This trial has also been going for four months, and it’s quite possible that the novelty of watching TV on a phone hasn’t yet worn off and is skewing figures. It should also be noted that people in the O2 trial watch 3 hours of TV a week, compared to just one hour in the BT trial — that’s quite a discrepancy.
It’s also important not to read too much into the results of questions asking people if they liked the service, if they’d subscribe and how much they’d pay — particularly when they’ve been receiving the service for free. Again, there’s a sizable discrepancy in the two trials — BT’s users says they’d pay £5 per month, O2 users £8. Getting users to actually spend that money, rather than just say they’d spend it, is a significant challenge. The O2 figure that three-fourths of people in the trial would take the service up within 12 months is totally worthless, as well. The only DVB-H handsets announced so far are high-end models that will carry a hefty price tag. Expecting boatloads of people to immediately buy into expensive new handsets so they can shell out for an expensive new service is pretty unrealistic (have the carriers forgotten WAP? MMS?). Never mind that spectrum for DVB-H networks won’t be available across the entire UK until 2012.
Of course, there’s nothing that an editor or reporter that’s a little bit out of their depth loves more than an analyst projection to validate everything they’ve just unquestioningly bought into, and the BBC doesn’t disappoint by closing with “Technology consultancy Strategy Analytics predicted that mobile firms will have about 50 million users of mobile TV by 2009, generating an estimated £3.5bn in revenue.” Let’s review, briefly: there’s roughly 60 million people in the UK, so within 3 years, nearly 85% of people in country will use mobile TV. Right. Forget hockey stick predictions, this is more like a cricket bat. If experience has taught us anything about the mobile industry, it’s that new products and technologies tend to experience takeup levels inverse to the hype surrounding them. Using that yardstick, it’s hard to see mobile TV catching on anywhere nearly as quickly as operators and equipment vendors would have us believe.
Update: Funny — the FT’s article on the O2 trial this morning (and the one that’s been syndicated) was initially titled “Jury still out on mobile phone TV”. Now it’s “Studies show appetite for mobile phone TV”. Hat tip to James at MocoNews for noticing.
I Used this service a little at the broadacast production show in London last year and talked to Arqiva people. I was only able to see 5 channels as opposed to the 16 in the full trial, but I could see that it was something I might even use, and I have always thought that I wouldn’t. But traditional programming makes no sense for mobile imo, packaged micro-content makes a lot more sense, especially for “…peak demand during the morning and evening commute periods”.
They’re calling it “personal TV” now, because “…The term mobile TV is not enough,”.
this is because of surprise findings such as “usage at home was higher than any other location. “. What a weird thing to do - Personal TV? What, like a 1985 portable? Kind of misleading as a product header I think.
One interesting technical aside is that the “… adapted Nokia 7710 handset…” actually takes advantage of the fact that the 7710 ships with a USB2 port in the back panel next to the battery, the “adaption” simply being a DVB-H receiver that slots into this, built into the snap-on back cover.
“Technology consultancy Strategy Analytics predicted that mobile firms will have about 50 million users of mobile TV by 2009, generating an estimated £3.5bn in revenue.”
Wow! wow! wow! I only need like 1% of that market to make me 35 million a year. These Strategy Analytics people are grrrreat!
Thanks for making this post. At least some sensible people will see that Mobile TV is more hype than reality. I am not sure what are the video cast sales on Ipod but same thing applies to them. People will buy the stuff out of first experience for first time but i dont think they have market potential. Ya in future, if someone comes up with a mobile device which can enable TV service on the fly and that mobile could be connected any screen such as TV..Comp then I would consider that since its like having my own cable with me always. But just some channels…No way..and plus may be 10-20 bucks a month..I dont think so..
K
At Steve Jobs’ MacWorld Key Note, he said that they’d sold 8 million video downloads, to date. Bearing in mind that 14 million iPods were sold last quarter and assume 25% of these were video iPods, that’s a very high percentage trial or a lot of repeat purchase by a smaller minority.
However, downloading a favourite peak-time programme is very different from wanting all programmes (including all the dross) sent to you in real time.
Russell
I totally agree with your sceptisim on Mobile TV. The key figures all these analysts idiots know and avoid is that in the UK, 60% of users are on pre-pay handsets. For 16-24 year olds, this figure rises to 90% pre-pay, usually paid for by someone else.
Unless the handsets are incredibly cheap and users are offered a pay per view option, I just can’t see how the operators are going to make this work….
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[...] Please, Make The Mobile TV Hype Stop at MobHappy Using that yardstick, it’s hard to see mobile TV catching on anywhere nearly as quickly as operators and equipment vendors would have us believe. [...]