The Difficulty of Predictions

While I’m standing by our predictions we made in the last few weeks, I was reminded of why predicting the future is so damn impossible while I was on holiday over the New Year period.

I was in South Africa (great place, if you get a chance to go) and was on Safari, like you do. As we were watching these Black Rhinos, I asked about poaching, which has endangered the whole species. Poachers kill the Rhino for its horn, which some people misguidedly believe has aphrodisiac properties, despite no scientific evidence to support the idea. It’s also not terribly logical as it’s the same material as human nail, but that’s their belief.

Game reserves, conservationists and Governments have tried all kinds of things to stop poachers. They’ve run education campaigns in the Far East (where the belief is most prevalent), implemented shoot-on-site policies for the poachers and even amputated the Rhinos’ horns. This is harmless to the Rhino (like cutting our nails), but they still get killed for the small root that remains.

And yet, Rhino poaching is now declining. Why?

Because Viagra was launched and it actually does what Rhino horn is meant to, but doesn’t.

So the inventors of Viagra have possibly saved the Rhino. Who could ever have predicted that?

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