This is a continuation of yesterday’s review of my predictions for this year. My score so far 5 out of 6 - not bad so far.
7. Apple launches the iPhone
Well, actually I first predicted this back in August 2004, when it was genuinely a “wow! do you think so” thought. And by January, it was a pretty easy call.
I did write though “But I hope it doesn’t try to cut corners by re-purposing a standard Moto phone and interface. It needs to start from scratch and show us how it should be done.”
Shame they didn’t listen and it must be the biggest hyped flop of the year.
Points: 1
8. Mobile Marketing Explodes - Not
I think I was spot on the money here again. A year of talk, a year of agency hype, desperately trying the crank-start the market, but in terms of results, we got a few “text and wins” and not much else.
When will this go mainstream? Every year since 2001, it’s been “next year is going to be the year”, apart from my predictions, of course.
Actually, certainly in the UK, the mobile marketing scene is looking grim, with one or two notable exceptions. Most of the original players are downsizing - or at least pulling in their horns - as they struggle to find a business model that makes sense.
Will next year be the year then? Read our 2006 Predictions to find out.
Points 1.
9. Blogging continues to go from strength to strength.
Hard to argue against that.
Points 1.
10. Mobile Phone Virii
I wrote that it would be a year of hype with the real story being “… that to catch one you’d have to be as unlucky as to get struck by lightening on a clear day while standing in a rubber suit at the bottom of a swimming pool.”
Incidentally, if you think this predicting lark is easy, look at what Deloittes wrote in their predictions for 2005:
“Electronic viruses will run rampant in PCs, cellphones, PDAs and gaming consoles. Nuisances such as unsolicited e-mail (spam), unsolicited instant messages (spim) and attacks on Bluetooth-enabled devices (bluejacking) will become common.”
MobHappy 1.
11. Mobile Video Slow to Take Off
I wrote that I thought there would be a market for short, downloadable video clips (as opposed to TV) but that because it would be “pretty costly in both data download costs and content costs” it would be slow to take off.
It certainly has, so I’ll give myself a full point for 2005, though the jury is still out on the long term.
Point: 1
12. MP3 and Mobile Converge
I think we’ll see that 2005 was the year when stand alone MP3 players peaked.
What is certain is that the market continued to converge, as predicted.
Points: 1
13. DRM
I said that it would be high on the agenda, but it was doomed to fail and that
“…it might be a better use of the content owners’ considerable energy and talent to think how they can work with the new trends of their business model, rather than trying to stuff the fully grown adult lion back into the bag it doesn’t want to go into, with their bare hands.”
Well, it was certainty very high on the agenda and the whole Sony Fiasco proves my point way beyond even what I expected.
Points 1.
14. Voice is the Killer App for 3G
How the 3G operators have struggled in 2005 to come up with another reason to buy 3G handsets, other than cheap voice calls. We’ve had speed, video calling, dating applications, video downloading and a few others besides thrown at us.
But the phone is primarily about communication, as least so far and voice remains the master.
Points 1.
So, I’m a little embarrassed to write that my score is 13 out of 14 so far. If you disagree with my scoring feel free to tell me in no uncertain terms!
Also, if you have any predictions for next year, write to us and we’ll feature the best ones in a post soon.
Tune in tomorrow for the final ones, where I’m going to lose one more point - or will it be more? And look out for next year’s predictions over the holiday period.
Image from Chervokas Blog.
When Nokia confirmed it wouldn’t be making any more N-Gage models a little while ago, the surprise was, well, surprising, given it had announced the plans at E3 in May to make the N-Gage a gaming platform and extend it across multiple devices, and reiterated it a couple months ago in Barcelona. But then again, blogs can have awfully short memories. In any case, Nokia’s shared some more details of the plan with developers, and it still sounds to be the right idea.
It’s been pretty clear for a long time that having a single games device when there were plenty of other handsets capable of running the games wasn’t the best idea. Too much of the plan’s success hung on the success of the N-Gage, and when it didn’t sell, the whole strategy tanked.
The idea now is yes, you can play these great games on any of these devices — but maybe it would be better on a dedicated device, if that’s what you want, or with a special gaming accessory. That sort of open, additive strategy is far better than one that says, no, you can’t play that game — it doesn’t matter that you’ve got hardware technically capable of running it, it’s just not the “game phone”.
The N-Gage and its games were but one example of these sorts of closed strategies that run rampant in mobile. Far too many products and services are available to a limited number of users, whether it’s for technical, financial or other reasons. Part of the promise of mobility is the huge number of mobile users in the world — but when your product’s available to only a very tiny subset of them, you’re putting limits on your success. (It strikes me as I write this that ShoZu, which I posted about a few minutes ago is an example of this. Cognima Snap is a great product, but it’s only sold to carriers — but ShoZu’s an analog that’s open to anybody. Well, anybody with a compatible handset. But nobody’s perfect :D)
(Image from sidetalkin.com)
Russell wrote about ShoZu, a free mobile photo uploading service a couple months ago, noting it looked like a good way to get around the problems of MMS for uploading photos to a sharing site like Flickr. It’s built by Cognima, which makes the cool white-label Snap service that’s pretty similar, but it sold to carriers. ShoZu offers some of the functionality of Snap, but is open to anybody with a compatible handset, and is free. When ShoZu launched, it only worked on some Symbian handsets, but it now supports a slew of Windows Mobile devices as well as some Java handsets.
I downloaded it on my Sony Ericsson K750, and have messed with it some, and it seems pretty great for uploading to Flickr — far easier than sending them via email or SMS. So check it out again if you were disappointed by the earlier list of compatible handsets, and hopefully the list will keep growing.
Back in January of this year, I wrote a whole bunch - 19 in total - of predictions for 2005. How did I do?
Over the next 3 days, I’m going to review these and try to assess my performance. I’ll give myself 1 point for each correct one, with a maximum score of 19, if you’re paying attention. Feel free to challenge my score if you feel I’ve been over-generous or (less likely!) too hard on myself.
Before I launch in though, MobHappy’s new 2006 Predictions will be published during our break between Christmas and our restart on January 9th 2006. Each day, we’ll feature two predictions and really nail our colours to our mast.
If you’re away too, don’t worry, we’ll republish them at the end of that week, when you’ve had a chance to catch up.
OK, here’s a review of the first 6 from 2005:
1. P2P File Sharing
I predicted that P2P File Sharing would boom in 2005, as kids shared video and music over Bluetooth.
This is a very hard one to score, as no one really knows - these transactions are untraceable, after all. It is happening though, certainly in schools in London and some in Germany, but the question is, on what scale?
I think I’ll be hard on myself and conclude that while this form of sharing is widespread, it has yet to “boom” as such. However, it is only a matter of time and with the might of Nokia promoting it, via their Sensor app, I think we’ll start to see things happen more next year.
The problem this raises for operators is that they get no revenue and no one can ever measure the scale of the abuse.
Points: 0 (or is that too harsh?)
2. Location Based Services
I said that LBS would fail to take off this year and I’ve been pretty much right. A few interesting grass root initiatives, but nothing mass market.
The main fuss has been kid tracking schemes, which I think are flawed anyway and there’s no sign of traction there either.
Points: 1
3. SMS continues to grow like crazy.
Points: 1
4. MMS continues to flounder.
Right here too, I believe.
MMS is too expensive, too difficult to use and still has compatibility issues between networks. Perhaps most crucially, most phones aren’t set up to use it - a scandalous wasted opportunity for the industry.
Points: 1
5. Video Calling fails to take off.
Right here too.
This time last year, dating was being hailed by the likes of 3 as the saviour of their video calling fantasies. Not so, I wrote, as video calling is very rarely complementary to your looks, so it’s possibly the worst use for the service.
I think video calling’s potential is filming things and events, rather than your face. So live action from a sports game or gig, for instance, or reporting a problem in the field.
Maybe new generations will take to the face thing, but for now, it’s a dead duck.
Points: 1
6. Mobile TV doesn’t take off either
Millions have been poured into mobile TV last year and this, with very little sign of traction so far.
The issue is that while people might like the idea, they don’t like the idea of paying for it. Ultimately, my theory is that it’ll be bundled into a bunch of other services or considered simply a cost of doing business for operators.
Points 1.
So, in total 5 out of 6, so far. The trouble with these analyses is that it’s hard for us all to remember exactly what it was like last year when I wrote them. I can tell you, quite honestly, that they weren’t as easy to call as it might seem today.
You’ll see what I mean when your read our 2006 predictions or compare what we said with some other analysts.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at how I did on things like Mobile Marketing and Mobile Viruses.
This week, the Carnival of the Mobilists returns to MobHappy, for an end of year, holiday extravaganza.
To celebrate, we’re asking all our writers to send in their very favourite post from their writing from the whole of 2005. As you know, the Carnival exists to celebrate the best writing about mobile, so we’re offering the very best of the very best.
For writers, please submit your entry today, whether you’re a seasoned contributor or a newbie.
For readers, don’t forget to come back on Friday. And why not tell a colleague about it? - you know they’ll thank you.
Back in July 04, I wrote a piece about the possibilities of social networking on planes, wondering in any airline would pick up on it.
Well, they don’t seem to have done, but that hasn’t stopped entrepreneurs from going into the space. AirTroductions arrange for like minded travellers to hook up while flying, for any purpose people normally want to meet each other - social or business networking or joining the mile high club dating.
You start off with a profile, including your objective. Then say when you’re flying and they give you anyone matching. If you like the sound of the match, they put you in touch, take a $5 fee and you arrange to sit next to each other.
Very nice idea. The only issue with any of these concepts is that if you try it a couple of times and don’t get a match, you’ll give up. Therefore, establishing critical mass quickly is imperative - easier said than done.
That’s why I can’t help feeling that this would be better as an airline initiative. A MoSoSo app for use on the plane would be cool too.
Good luck to them though. Sometimes an idea does spread if it’s good enough and the timing is right.
Story from Cool Business Ideas, via Business Week.
We wrote last weekend about how TypePad, MobHappy’s blog software/hosting supplier had 18 hours downtime last Friday. We pay to use this service, as we want reliability, so it’s galling when they have persistent problems like this.
However, a much bigger issue with these things is how companies deal with problems when they come up. It’s like waiting for a train to arrive, when you’re sitting on a cold, damp platform. It’s mildly irritating for the first 5 minutes, but then annoyance levels start to rise exponentially. Unless, the train operator has the good sense and courtesy to tell you:
1. What the problem is.
2. When it will be resolved.
Then, if the resolution doesn’t happen as and when they say, they continue to keep you updated and informed.
This doesn’t remove the passengers’ annoyance, but it does manage it far more effectively. If they know what’s happening, you can manage their expectations accordingly.
What many people found so frustrating about the TypePad incident was that this communication simply wasn’t forthcoming. What little information they did deign to let us know was via a less than prominent page on their site, was simply a blandly worded status - yes, guys, I can see your site is down, but what’s the issue and when will it be resolved do you think?
This situation has been compounded by subsequent further communication issues in that they’ve still failed to write to all their customers to apologise (and offer compensation, if appropriate). I did raise this point on Niall Kennedy’s blog, when he interviewed Anil Dash, a VP of Six Apart, on Friday night.
In fairness to the poor bloke, he does seem to be caught in the middle of a situation not of his making ie he’s neither in charge of tech nor the TypePad product, but did have the courtesy to make himself available and is obviously concerned. But when I raised the issue of an apology, he wrote:
I do expect you’ll get formal communication from Six Apart as a whole on Monday, with the goal there being to make sure we’ve got a full understanding of everything when we communicate formally.
Let’s leave aside that such an email should have been sent over the weekend and not waited for the luxury of a working day to organise this. Monday has come and gone and no such apology has arrived.
Ahh…maybe as a blogging company, they’ll at least use their blogs, right? Wrong! Mena Trott, founder and poster child of the company has not only ignored the issue, but hasn’t updated her blog, Mena’s Corner for about 5 months.
Typepad have lost touch with the “community” they so proudly talk about.
Contrast this with my other mission critical (and free) blogging software, del.icio.us. Note that while still young, they’ve already joined big business by selling to Yahoo! They were also hit by an outrage yesterday and did everything right. Their blog spelled out the detailed situation, was constantly updated and was open for comments all the way through.
The blog was written live by their founder, in person, who was also up to his eyes in resolving the tech issues - horribly stressful, though this undoubtedly was. The community (and there really is one here) was wonderfully supportive. In the main they were also quick to stamp on anyone less than 100% behind the team.
TypePad need to look at del.icio.us and apply this kind of action plan to their next crisis management scenario. In the meantime, the word on the street is that some leading players in the 6A management team will jump ship imminently, rather than risk further sullying their personal reputations by association with further communication and management incompetence.
They need to take some radical and powerful action, as a matter of urgency, to resolve their technology, communication and leadership issues.
The big story going around one day a few weeks ago was how an episode of CSI:NY would feature a plug for a Coldplay ringtone worked into the dialogue. I managed to see the episode recently, and thought the placement was pretty obvious and over-the-top — which to my mind is the least successful kind of placement, because it cheapens the underlying content and, for lack of a technical term, is completely cheesy.
I then happened upon an episode of Aqua Teen Hunger Force late one night that took things a step further, but to be perfectly honest, it didn’t really strike me as out of step for what’s a pretty bizarre show (and didn’t pop back into my mind until I saw a post on Mocoblog about it. Apparently the guys that make it sold out to Boost Mobile and created an entire episode based around the brand and its phones — particularly their distinctive push-to-talk chirp. But it had a completely different feel to it than the CSI plug. It felt genuine, almost as if the Aqua Teen guys had just chosen to make fun of Boost for its annoying features and slightly obnoxious advertising. Plus, it helped that the show is hilarious.
Perhaps there’s some deeper meaning in how mobile products are becoming so pervasive and so on, but I’m not sure that’s important. Bottom line, people want to sell stuff. But in any case, it’s an interesting contrast in how to, or not to, make a successful product placement.
(Picture from Aqua Teen Central)
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