Comments on: 2006 Prediction 1 and 2

By: Tim Hayward

Tim Hayward — Thu, 29 Dec 2005 00:10:21 +0000

I also doubt we will see an Apple phone. Surely the only reason for this would be to enable wireless access to iTunes – but unfortunately the user experience of this with current wireless networks would be very messy. iTunes currently doesn’t care how the user gets on the internet but with an iPod phone they would have to manage this experience and this is not possible to Apple’s high standards.

By: Rudy De Waele

Rudy De Waele — Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:31:35 +0000

Jonathan, I’m one of those other ‘mobilists’ and let me comfort you that we definately do not think the same on everything, most likely we share a lot of the same experiences in mobile but I guess it’s just christmas time and most people take a break in this period?

On the other hand Carlo and Russell do have the perfect timing to publish their predictions for 2006 and I believe they are extremely well informed and making good predictions.

Personally I did not find the time yet to post my 2006 predictions but I can tell you they are not the same as Mobhappy’s (as for now!), an example here already on their mobile marketing prediction: I do not think we’re gonna see a sea’s change in 2006 but rather a lake’s… I can agree with Russell’s points on demographics but not really on the consumer part. We definately don’t have the same sources but I believe:

1. people still don’t like to receive offensive messages or advertising on their mobiles.
2. customers are still reluctant to let their mobile phone numbers being stored in databases from startup companies they hardly know or never heard of.
3. operators keep their networks still too closed; once we’ll see openings to surf freely to the mobile web, mobile marketing will get a new chance and that will include ads in rss feeds.
4. technology just isn’t ready yet for mature mobile marketing, yes we’re going to see more experiments but no mass campaigns, forget even the international campaigns… too complex; SMS doesn’t work (or just a bit), let’s forget about MMS, with Wap-push, funky stuff can be done but as long as the cost is on the end-user side I don’t believe this can break through to the masses.
5. as for now efficient mobile marketing campaigns can only happen right in closed user groups of people with a certain profile, deciding and willing to receive ads and that’s maybe something to start looking for…

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Tue, 27 Dec 2005 16:59:52 +0000

I appreciate your request asking for “comment and feedback.” I enjoy reading Carnival of Mobilists because it saves time and points me to blogs I don’t think about every day, but I’d like to see a little more friction and excitement. I can’t believe that all you “professional” bloggers see things the same. I want to see the others react to your predictions.

I will start with a complement. Great observation that “mobile marketing is a child of engagement marketing.” Next, my question: where will most of the growth in mobile marketing come from? Consumers searching for information based on impulse (ala search model) where brand recognition and footprint is critical or triggered interaction based on call to action (ala american idol, or Oxfam announcement at Coldplay concert)? And then my slice of prediction, most mobile marketing campaigns will be implemented at local level and not national level through at least 2006. Long distance relationships are less engaging than local/physical interaction – with exception of mobile porn I suppose.

By: Anders Borg

Anders Borg — Mon, 26 Dec 2005 22:27:52 +0000

Brainstorming around point 1:

I don’t think there will be an ‘iPhone’ from Apple:
1. what’s the point?
2. a phone is much more complex than an iPod, with a lot of functionality that’s beyond Apple’s core (pun intended)).

I rather believe in software implementations (Java and Symbian OS, and less likely Windows Mobile and Linux) of the iTunes client. That will reach millions of phones / consumers quickly.