Welcome to MobHappy’s 2006 Predictions!
While Carlo and I are away, chilling out, we’ve written these for your entertainment. While they’re a bit of fun on one level, we also take them quite seriously and if previous years are a guideline, we’re not bad at them. If we score a point of every right one, 2005 saw us with 17/19 and 2004 with 6.5/8.
We’ve done a full 20 - two each week day - a one liner and a slightly more considered piece. Please comment and leave feedback, as that’s what makes blogging fun for everyone.
So let’s crack on.
1. Apple launches the iPhone (as opposed to co-operating with a Moto phone) as MP3 and phone convergence accelerates.
2. Mobile Marketing - The Market Thaw
Mobile Marketing has been going to be big next year since 2001, unless you’ve been reading my predictions. But every year it’s really failed to gain much traction and for every brand dipping its toes into the mobile marketing sea, you’ve had another running back up the beach to safer campaign territory.
2006, in my view, will start to be the sea change. 2006 won’t be the year it explodes, but we’ll certainly start to see more brands get involved and there’s a real danger of agencies making some money from it.
Why am I thinking along these lines?
I admit there’s a huge amount of gut feel here and listening to the market, but that shouldn’t be discounted, as anyone who’s ever read Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink will appreciate.
However, this is supported by some important trends.
Firstly, we have demographics. It’s always been the case that marketing departments tend to be led by people in their late 30’s and 40’s. Senior agency people in charge of selling campaigns were around the same age. This meant that that 5 years ago, these people weren’t even using sms and needed to have it explained to them.
So despite all the evidence that their customers were big on sms and using their phones for other stuff, they didn’t really feel it and couldn’t relate to it. At the same time, the agencies were full of people who couldn’t think joined-up mobile, so poor little mobile marketing had no chance.
5 years on and we have a new generation of marketers in charge. They won’t exactly have grown up with a phone in their hands as the under 25’s have done, but they’ll certainly be heavy users of mobile and it’ll be in their psyche. This means that when mobile ideas are proposed, they’ll understand with both their brains and their hearts.
The final piece of the demographic jigsaw is customers themselves. Everyone uses sms these days, therefore it can no longer be accused of being niche. More importantly, it’s so bleeding obvious that for anyone under 30, their mobile is the most important possession. They’re simply obsessed and rarely spend even a minute without glancing at it, fondling it, checking it for messages. Only a congenitally stupid marketer can ignore this, especially when combined with the stats showing the rapid decline of old media in terms of consumption and influence.
Another trend is the mainstream agencies are finally noticing mobile and that they have to start changing quickly if they are to survive after the old 30 second ad is finally buried in the next couple of years. All the bright agencies are looking at the implications of this and are really starting to embrace change. I don’t think these guys are going to drive the market, but they do learn quickly once something has their attention.
That doesn’t mean we’re not going to see loads of doomed attempts to put banner ads on phones and run 30 second ads on them.
I also worry that there’s a dearth of creative people, who think up the campaigns, who understand the technology involved in mobile. While the customer shouldn’t be bothered with HOW things work, campaign originators do. So unless you understand what’s possible, you’ll never push the envelope in any meaningful way.
In fairness, the corollary applies. The techies who run the back end, aren’t capable of coming up wiith good campaigns, as they don’t understand marketing. So we need people who can operate across this void, naturally and instinctively.
Mobile marketing is a child of engagement marketing and is perfectly suited to that engagement process of creating dialogues with customers. This is the secret of success in mobile and brands considering getting involved must have dialogue at the heart of their campaigns.
2006 will see a lot more innovation in sms (much more than yet another “text and win”), forays into WAP and Java, experiments with sponsored content and some intelligent (and legal) innovation in location-based promotions. It’ll really start to explode in 2007/8 and brands need to start learning now before they start having to play catch-up.
Brainstorming around point 1:
I don’t think there will be an ‘iPhone’ from Apple:
1. what’s the point?
2. a phone is much more complex than an iPod, with a lot of functionality that’s beyond Apple’s core (pun intended)).
I rather believe in software implementations (Java and Symbian OS, and less likely Windows Mobile and Linux) of the iTunes client. That will reach millions of phones / consumers quickly.
I appreciate your request asking for “comment and feedback.” I enjoy reading Carnival of Mobilists because it saves time and points me to blogs I don’t think about every day, but I’d like to see a little more friction and excitement. I can’t believe that all you “professional” bloggers see things the same. I want to see the others react to your predictions.
I will start with a complement. Great observation that “mobile marketing is a child of engagement marketing.” Next, my question: where will most of the growth in mobile marketing come from? Consumers searching for information based on impulse (ala search model) where brand recognition and footprint is critical or triggered interaction based on call to action (ala american idol, or Oxfam announcement at Coldplay concert)? And then my slice of prediction, most mobile marketing campaigns will be implemented at local level and not national level through at least 2006. Long distance relationships are less engaging than local/physical interaction - with exception of mobile porn I suppose.
Jonathan, I’m one of those other ‘mobilists’ and let me comfort you that we definately do not think the same on everything, most likely we share a lot of the same experiences in mobile but I guess it’s just christmas time and most people take a break in this period?
On the other hand Carlo and Russell do have the perfect timing to publish their predictions for 2006 and I believe they are extremely well informed and making good predictions.
Personally I did not find the time yet to post my 2006 predictions but I can tell you they are not the same as Mobhappy’s (as for now!), an example here already on their mobile marketing prediction: I do not think we’re gonna see a sea’s change in 2006 but rather a lake’s… I can agree with Russell’s points on demographics but not really on the consumer part. We definately don’t have the same sources but I believe:
1. people still don’t like to receive offensive messages or advertising on their mobiles.
2. customers are still reluctant to let their mobile phone numbers being stored in databases from startup companies they hardly know or never heard of.
3. operators keep their networks still too closed; once we’ll see openings to surf freely to the mobile web, mobile marketing will get a new chance and that will include ads in rss feeds.
4. technology just isn’t ready yet for mature mobile marketing, yes we’re going to see more experiments but no mass campaigns, forget even the international campaigns… too complex; SMS doesn’t work (or just a bit), let’s forget about MMS, with Wap-push, funky stuff can be done but as long as the cost is on the end-user side I don’t believe this can break through to the masses.
5. as for now efficient mobile marketing campaigns can only happen right in closed user groups of people with a certain profile, deciding and willing to receive ads and that’s maybe something to start looking for…
I also doubt we will see an Apple phone. Surely the only reason for this would be to enable wireless access to iTunes - but unfortunately the user experience of this with current wireless networks would be very messy. iTunes currently doesn’t care how the user gets on the internet but with an iPod phone they would have to manage this experience and this is not possible to Apple’s high standards.