Back in January of this year, I wrote a whole bunch - 19 in total - of predictions for 2005. How did I do?

Over the next 3 days, I’m going to review these and try to assess my performance. I’ll give myself 1 point for each correct one, with a maximum score of 19, if you’re paying attention. Feel free to challenge my score if you feel I’ve been over-generous or (less likely!) too hard on myself.

Before I launch in though, MobHappy’s new 2006 Predictions will be published during our break between Christmas and our restart on January 9th 2006. Each day, we’ll feature two predictions and really nail our colours to our mast.

If you’re away too, don’t worry, we’ll republish them at the end of that week, when you’ve had a chance to catch up.

OK, here’s a review of the first 6 from 2005:

1. P2P File Sharing

I predicted that P2P File Sharing would boom in 2005, as kids shared video and music over Bluetooth.

This is a very hard one to score, as no one really knows - these transactions are untraceable, after all. It is happening though, certainly in schools in London and some in Germany, but the question is, on what scale?

I think I’ll be hard on myself and conclude that while this form of sharing is widespread, it has yet to “boom” as such. However, it is only a matter of time and with the might of Nokia promoting it, via their Sensor app, I think we’ll start to see things happen more next year.

The problem this raises for operators is that they get no revenue and no one can ever measure the scale of the abuse.

Points: 0 (or is that too harsh?)

2. Location Based Services

I said that LBS would fail to take off this year and I’ve been pretty much right. A few interesting grass root initiatives, but nothing mass market.

The main fuss has been kid tracking schemes, which I think are flawed anyway and there’s no sign of traction there either.

Points: 1

3. SMS continues to grow like crazy.

Points: 1

4. MMS continues to flounder.

Right here too, I believe.

MMS is too expensive, too difficult to use and still has compatibility issues between networks. Perhaps most crucially, most phones aren’t set up to use it - a scandalous wasted opportunity for the industry.

Points: 1

5. Video Calling fails to take off.

Right here too.

This time last year, dating was being hailed by the likes of 3 as the saviour of their video calling fantasies. Not so, I wrote, as video calling is very rarely complementary to your looks, so it’s possibly the worst use for the service.

I think video calling’s potential is filming things and events, rather than your face. So live action from a sports game or gig, for instance, or reporting a problem in the field.

Maybe new generations will take to the face thing, but for now, it’s a dead duck.

Points: 1

6. Mobile TV doesn’t take off either

Millions have been poured into mobile TV last year and this, with very little sign of traction so far.

The issue is that while people might like the idea, they don’t like the idea of paying for it. Ultimately, my theory is that it’ll be bundled into a bunch of other services or considered simply a cost of doing business for operators.

Points 1.

So, in total 5 out of 6, so far. The trouble with these analyses is that it’s hard for us all to remember exactly what it was like last year when I wrote them. I can tell you, quite honestly, that they weren’t as easy to call as it might seem today.

You’ll see what I mean when your read our 2006 predictions or compare what we said with some other analysts.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at how I did on things like Mobile Marketing and Mobile Viruses.