Is Subscription the Answer?

As companies pour millions of dollars into mobile TV and video, one of their sustaining beliefs is that users will pay subscriptions for these services. I guess that they’ll happily take advertising dollars if they can find any takers, but this is being seen as icing on the cake, not the business model.

So I was interested to read about a speech this week, by Chuck Porter, advertising veteran chairman of Crispin Porter + Bogusky, which if you extrapolate his point is potentially worrying for the nascent industry.

Porter was talking in the context of subscription based TV and radio shows (ie not mobile). Specifically, that while viewers love the idea of commercial-free programming, when it comes down to it, they won’t pay for it – or will pay very little. This is based on extensive research by his agency.

Every focus group we have had, people said, ‘We don’t want commercials on the radio; We will pay to not have commercials,” he said at the Summit held in New York. “But they wouldn’t, and they didn’t.

Now, while it could be argued that I’m comparing apples with penguins here, it’s not so very different. The bottom line is how much people value this type of content. In both scenarios they’re being asked to pay for a service that they’ve come to believe is free and if they’re not prepared to pay for something they already see/listen to, why would they for pay for it on a new channel?

There is a prevalent myth that users are prepared to pay for anything on their mobiles that they get for free elsewhere. But I think we’re going to see that myth exploded in the Mobile TV arena. If it survives as a product offering, I reckon it’ll be bundled in with a bunch of other stuff and sold as an all-inclusive premium package. Either that, or end up being just a cost of service of being an operator.

—–>Follow us on Twitter too: @russellbuckley and @caaarlo

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  • I don't think the idea of subscriptions is a bad one -- but I think we're reaching people's limits on the number of subscriptions/monthly fees people pay.

    While $5 a month or something might not be a big deal, those $5 charges add up when you've got 5 services you might subscribe to, then the $15 a month for XM and the $20 a month for Netflix and so on and so on.

    Part of the problem in considering subscription pricing is that people don't consider them in light of all the other subs people may have, just on their own. Maybe your content is worth $5 a month, but is it worth another $5 a month?
  • I think it supports it quite well. First off, you can't compare the radio situation to mobile TV exactly because advertising-supported, free radio is not the same as the proposed bundled mobile TV. Nevertheless, the fact is that 7.4 million people (and growing) chose to pay money for roughly equivalent service that they can get for free! And all this in the multimedia backwater that is radio. Anyway, all this is moot as mobile TV on your cell is doomed, as I argued in this comment to one of Russell's earlier posts.
  • Sometimes I wonder if analysts/consultants really use the services they are promoting or talking/writing about.

    I have used Mobile TV for over a year now. What people tend to forget is that we're talking about a completely different experience to watch TV or movie content on a mobile... Ever tried to watch a 30 minutes news on a mobile? Let's just forget about the ads some want to insert in the content! May I preach for some simplicity and no-nonsense approach? How can you imagine people will watch 15 or 30 second ads on the mobile? I'm not sitting in my sofa doing this but probably on the move or inbetween doing different things. And talking about subscription, how many subscriptions can I honestly handle on my phone? Bundled, ok but I guess we need a fast forward functionality for that streamed content?

    And yes, I do believe in a new kind of short clip instant content that's gonna be freshly produced so I'm interested or curious to view that anytime, anywhere -if I can find that on my phone or on the mobile web somewhere...
  • Russel: Given the korean experience, I agree with your point.

    Ajay: How, exactly?

    The two dominant players in the satellite radio market in the US are Sirius, and XM Satellite. Siruis is projected to have 3 million subscribers by year end - XM had 4.4million by July this year. Conservatively, this means that there will be 7.4 million satellite radio subscribers, of 296 million people in the US. XM started broadcasting in 2001 (not sure when Sirus started).

    This is 2.5% of the population. For comparison, after one year TU Media had 0.6% of the South Korean population.

    I'm not quite sure this really supports your proposition...
  • That's no myth: people will pay for subscriptions to content. The problem is that the technology that allows them to pick and choose what they want didn't exist till recently. Porter is choosing to read that as "they don't want to pay," when the reality is that there hasn't been a convenient way to pay. Now that satellite radio exists, the thesis that advertising is necessary is being proven wrong. This reminds me of a post from another blog about the stability of prices a hundred years ago. As that author points out, the technology to constantly change prices didn't exist back then. The analogy to the pricing and distribution of content is perfect and content pricing will change just like retail.
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