I wrote last week about the remarkable growth of the Linux operating system in SmartPhones and how it and Symbian are relegating Microsoft into a bit player in the mobile phone sector.

Regular readers of MobHappy know that I think the battle to dominate the phone platform is a crucial one for winners and losers alike. Since the phone will become everyone’s primary digital device, largely replacing the PC altogether, Microsoft’s inability to make it happen in phones could have serious repercussions for the future of the whole company.

Now, no less a figure than Harvard guru and disruption technology authority, Clay Christensen, is saying pretty much the same thing.

He predicted that we wouldn’t see Linux taking root on desktops in enterprise
networks but that it would become the dominant operating system on handheld
computers.

"That’s the way Microsoft gets unwound," he said.

Christensen’s theory is that, once in a while, new technology comes along that tends to be cheaper and comes in at the low, undemanding end of the market. Examples are cars replacing horses, or more recently, personal computers replacing minicomputers and workstations.

If you’re an incumbent in the sector, it’s almost always impossible to see what’s going on until it’s just too late. As an example, back in the 80’s, Digital Equipment Corp had to decide whether to focus on selling the minicomputers for $500,000 each (at 60% margin) that its customers said they wanted or selling low performance PCs for $2,000 (at 40% margin) that its customers were saying they didn’t want. Seems like a no-brainer, except we now know what happened.

Linux is poised to do the same thing - according to good old Clayton and me

Maybe Microsoft will sit up and take note now. They MUST change their phone strategy or live to regret it, in the same way as photographic chemical producers must be scratching their heads today saying

"Where the hell’s my business gone??"

Story source: i-Mode Strategy