Here’s a few interesting links from this week that you might have missed. They’re stuff I might have blogged about given unlimited time.

Om Malik shows why you shouldn’t mess with a blogger or a journalist. Get off the fence, Om, and tell us what you really think of Dell.

Forbes looks at why the mobile might be the next “Napster”. I’ve been saying this for 2 years (at least) but if Forbes say it, it must be right.

New blogging tool wins prize

Business Week looks at the marriage of radio and the mobile. I believe that this is an important idea and that the combination of mobile and radio is much more natural than mobile video. So soon you’ll be able to listen to Eddie Grundy (pictured) on your mobile. If you don’t live in the UK, you won’t know who Eddie Grundy is. I don’t have time to explain and in fairness, you wouldn’t be very interested
Various subscription models for mobile radio are being tried. Plus the article explores the idea of creating your own radio station for others to tune into, when they are in your vicinity. This could do to radio what blogging has done to journalism.

Finally “beleaguered” may well be word that’ll soon be regularly applied to the golden goose of yore - the ringtone market. This thread on W2Forum (sub needed) suggests that the combination of operator paranoia (completely justified, by the way) of billing customers for content they hadn’t thought they’d ordered (the Jamba method) and dwindling ad returns is hitting the industry hard.

In its heyday an ad in The Sun in the UK (a mass market daily tabloid) returned a staggering 5 - 8 times the cost of the ad. Nowadays, you’re lucky to break even.

And P2P ringtone filesharing hasn’t even started yet. Time to bail out of this market, methinks.

Have a great weekend.

Russell

SMS.ac are nothing if not controversial. They claim to be the world’s largest mobile community (growing at 750,000 people a month!) and yet, they’re regularly accused of spamming on a massive scale.

There have been wild tales of “brainwashing” employees to work for no money, with promises of wealth-accumulating options. And at the same time, they partner with world leading operators such as Vodafone and Verizon and have close links with politicians in Washington.

Forbes, ABC and USA Today write positive (or certainly uncritical) articles about them. Yet, search the Blogosphere and chat rooms and there’s a different story being spun.

So what’s the truth here? Is it a case of a few embittered ex-employees shit-stirring, plus a handful of users misunderstanding tools? Or is there really a case to be answered?

I recently contacted Greg Wilfahrt, Executive Vice President and Co-founder of SMS.ac and asked for an interview by email, to which he graciously agreed. I have been totally open with Greg that I know all about the dark rumours and he’s fine with that, providing that I approach everything with an open mind.

I have a completely open mind, but I would like to understand the truth about what SMS.ac stand for and how they operate.

If you have a question you’d like me to put to Greg on your behalf, leave a comment or drop me an email russell AT mobhappy DOT com. I won’t be revealing anyone’s indentity in my post, so anonymity is assured.

Russell

I posted yesterday in one of my occasional “Advice to Operators pieces” that they should all introduce a system to allow P2P transfers of prepay phone credits.

These pieces are deliberately presented from the “in a perfect world” point of view and don’t take account of many of the complexities of running a mobile operator and the technical realisations of some of the ideas. I try to look at the forest and not the trees, in other words.

But, Simon Cavill, CTO of Mi-Pay left a comment saying that his company supplies this very technology to mobile operators, among other services.

So, why aren’t operators getting killed in the rush to use their services? They seem to have a heavy-weight team, lots of experience and some serious partnerships in place.

So if you work for an operator, you should talk to them, at least. There’s money to be made here that’s leaking like a sieve, with extra holes banged in it.

On the other hand, being completely incapable of not giving advice, I would say that their website doesn’t do them any favours in presenting their services. You really have to sift through it and drill down to stand a chance of discovering what they do.

Please let’s have less jargon, more benefits (not features) of your services and get straight to the point. If I’m a busy and stressed operator, I want to know within 5 seconds of hitting this site what you can do for me and how that’ll help my company.

The home page just says:

In a groundbreaking marketplace, Mi-Pay has partnered with established leaders to offer consultancy and managed services that deliver unbeatable cost reductions for prepaid services such as mobile top up and e-money account re-charging.

Mobile operators, e-money providers, WIFI operators and even transport companies can all benefit from Mi-Pay’s services today.

“So they’re a cost-reduction consultancy maybe? Or certainly a consultancy of some kind. I don’t have a budget for consulting. Nah. I’m in the wrong place - I was looking for a funky P2P mobile credits transfer system.”

So, Simon, good luck with your venture - it looks very exciting, but not the way you tell it Maybe an experienced marketing person could usefully be added to that brilliant exec line up?

Anyone who’s ever used a prepay phone (which probably excludes most people who work for an operator, funnily enough) knows what a real pain it is when you run out of credits. Just as your battery runs out in the middle of a critical call, your credits fail you just when you really need a mobile.

I know it makes sense to have back up credits. But all that normally happens is you buy two cards and then buy two more then the second one has run out.

Many kids and teens have prepay phones, as we know. Not only are they always running out of credits, but they don’t necessarily have the cash to immediately buy new ones or have a backup supply either.

OK, I know that the perennial excuse of “Sorry, Mum, I was out of credits” is often used instead of saying that the kid forgot to make an important call. But it’s still an issue.

Now, what happens when someone is out of credits? Stating the bleeding obvious, they have to stop using their phone until they get topped up. This means there’s a potential revenue loss, as calls that would have been made and and messages that would have been sent, never happen.

Sure, some of these will merely be delayed, but a good proportion (maybe 70%? - this is a wild guess) have been lost forever.

When this is applied across the board, the resulting loss could be pretty significant. As an example, here’s some rounded up, ballpark stats. In the UK, there’s 50 million mobiles, of which say, 60% are prepay. Let’s say that ARPU is in the region of £130 ($236) for prepay customers. Let’s say then that the average prepay customer runs out of credits once a month and that 70% of those calls/messages are lost for ever.

I reckon that indicates a potential loss to the industry of around £90 million - which, even for the huge telecoms industry, is no small change. And clearly, the figures could be higher than that.

So, what’s the advice then? Well simply allow P2P transfers of credits. When Teddy Teen has run out of credits, his good old Mum can send him new ones. Or he can borrow some off his mate and return them when he has got some of his own.

This wouldn’t just have the effect of increasing revenue. It would also be great for customer service and if implemented by one network, might allow them to steal a march on the others for a while.

Once a P2P system was up and running, it would be both proof of concept and a great platform to launch a mobile payments system, with real cash.

I was reminded of this today, when re-looking at G-Cash in the Phillipines. This is hardly a low key project and is very successful, to boot. So why the reluctance in other markets to take on this great idea?

Another operator mystery. If I’ve missed something, be sure to leave a comment and put me right.

One of my predictions for this year was that there would be a lot of scaremongering headlines about mobile viruses. But, on closer examination, they’d prove to be non-stories promoted by companies selling anti-virus software and faithfully reprinted by uncritical journalists, like this and this.

To clarify this position, I’ve never suggested that they will never be a threat, just not this year - I was predicting for 2005 only.

Gartner analysts John Pescatore and John Girard have now written a paper agreeing with me - better late than never, chaps They say the treat is unlikely to be real until 2007:

“Despite….intense vendor- and media-driven speculation ó and several well-publicised hoaxes ó the necessary conditions required for viruses or worms to pose a real rapidly spreading threat to more than 30 percent of enterprise mobile devices will not converge until year-end 2007,”

They identify two factors that need to be present. Firstly, Smartphones need to have 30%+ penetration. Secondly, that people will have to regularly exchange executable files. To which I’d add, or that people get used to receiving BlueSpam.

The Gartner boys also call for network operators to take the lead and install the anti-virus software on their networks, calling handset software “a last resort”. While I think that the operators should certainly take the initiative, any solution must be done simultaneously on the network and handset. Bluetooth, which must be a prime candidate for some transmission of infections, doesn’t go via the networks. Ignore this at your peril.

A final word of warning. Don’t be complacent about mobile virii, even now. If you get a file sent to you and you don’t know what it is, DON’T install it. You’ll be asked twice, so even if you accidentally get “yes” and “no” muddled up the first time, you can still get it right.

People are getting infected and the ZD Net story finishes with a quote from a mobile anti-virus software company (obviously an impeccable source):

“In fact, I just got a call this morning from the editor of a large Scandinavian IT publication; he got infected on his own phone last Thursday, at a press conference for a mobile phone company.”

Bearing in mind that the editor of an IT publication, must know something about IT, I just wonder why he agreed to install this file. What did he think he was installing, exactly?

I think we should be told.

Story source: ZD Net

Speaking of being overwhelmed, I really meant to blog about Alatto a few months ago. Nothing to do with the fact that their corporate blog (this is a good initiative, guys) claimed that my blog was the best on mobile
But prompted by a really excellent analysis of mobile phone navigation and usability at The Feature by Alatto’s CEO, Neil Flanagan, I thought I’d better take another look.

The point Neil makes so eloquently (I really recommend you take a moment and read The Feature’s article) is that most navigation for websites viewed on mobile phones, is based on the principles of web pages designed for viewing on a PC. Clearly, the usability issues and experience are entirely different, meaning that browsing via WAP is cumbersome, at best.

It actually is testament to the power of WAP that people are prepared to ignore these usability issues and still use it (1.82 page impressions a month in the UK now). It’s the same as SMS - you couldn’t have designed a less usable messaging system for phones if you’d really tried.

Neil also looks at some rules, which if you have anything to do with WAP page design should be carved into your forehead in mirror writing, so you’re reminded of them before you start work every day.

- If anything takes more than 4 clicks on a mobile, it probably isn’t going to happen.
- 10% of mobile content gets 80% of hits. The long tail doesn’t get traffic via hierarchical navigation.
- People can’t/won’t change their phone settings.
- Usability issues don’t go away because you have faster access.

Neil also points out that some companies have tried to make the site navigation more understandable by publishing little maps of the sites. Can you imagine having to follow a paper-based map to successfully navigate a web based site? If websites were that difficult to use, I’m not sure the web would ever have taken off at all.

So what happens if you look at navigation for WAP using the limitations of a mobile, but from a completely fresh perspective? If you abandon hierarchical navigation altogether, one solution certainly looks a lot like Alatto’ Tribes product, which they license to mobile operators.

So effective is Tribes that they claim it doubles data traffic, as browsing explodes among the target audience. So what’s it all about?

The basic approach is to encourage content snacking. In other words, people have their mobile and want to do cool stuff with it. This includes discovering new content. But WAP isn’t much fun to use, to the point of actually being pretty boring. So you might use it for functional stuff - what time’s the next train? is my flight delayed? but rarely just for the hell of it, like you would on your PC.

Also note that successful mobile phone applications involve the ability to dip in and out, as you go about doing other things. In the past, I’ve called this mobile sushi, in comparison to turkey and all the trimmings feast that the PC browsing experience can be.

Tribes promotes this behaviour by working with three key features:

1. Smart Navigation

The more you use it, the better it understands the sorts of content you like. This means that this type of content will be more readily presented to you and makes it easier to discover.

It claims to be able to also present content according to your mood and time of day.

The basis of this is that for each site it sends you, you’re invited to give it a rating (a simple choice between “cool” and “fool”).

2. Content Preferencing

Artificial Intelligence uses weighted collaborative recommendations to match the user’s needs.

3. Viral

The phone is, above all, a communication device. They’ve built a viral element into the heart of Tribes, meaning that users can share sites they like, with their friends/family, vote on favourites and even write reviews.

A simple couple of clicks enables you to send an sms with a site’s link to a friend, if you think they’ll like a site. On receipt of the SMS, the user simply clicks on the link and goes straight to the site in question. She then gets a chance to rate it and so Tribes starts to learn her tastes too.

The result, in my view, is about 1000% improvement in navigation, from the look of it. I haven’t played with it in the wild on a phone, but it looks like it’s an entirely new user experience. And well overdue it is too.

Now the challenge is for all of us to optimise our websites for the WAP user, which is going to keep a lot of people very busy for the next few years.

Russell
PS Sorry about the truly execrable pun in the headline. I just couldn’t resist it.

UPDATE: John Whelan of Alatto says that Tribes is curently giving one operator average user sessions of 48 pages. Impressive!

One of the things that stops non-bloggers from blogging is the old “what will I blog about?” chestnut. They’re concerned that they’ll start with a bang and end, a few days later, with a whimper.

While many blogs do end ignomiosuly within days, I can’t help feeling it’s down to motivation rather than not knowing what to write.

I find I’m completely overwhelmed with material - if the world stopped for the next two months and I devoted myself to 18 hours a day blogging, I’d still have plenty to write about.

Plus I frequently have to skip 100’s of posts from favourite and important blogs.

This is actually quite frustrating, as I sometimes have to skip commenting on stories that I think you’ll find interesting. And I don’t often feature important stories at all, if I have nothing new to add, as I figure you’ll pick them up elsewhere.

So I thought that I might start publicising my link at del.icio.us where I simply tag stories I think you’ll like, but I haven’t really got anything to add to them or, at least, time to add anything to them.

If you don’t know about Del.ico.us, don’t worry - all will become clear. But you should check it out as it’s an important tool. Have a play and change your life
The question is; would you have time to read them? Leave a comment and let me know.

Russell

3, the UK 3G network owned by Hutchison, has driven its bid for market share, with aggressive, price-led marketing - once they abandoned their initial, doomed video calling strategy. This has led to a customer base dominated by Chavs. Chavs is the slang term for mainly urban youth, with a penchant for designer clothes and sports wear. See here for Wikipedia’s study of the genre.

This has led to cultural phenomena like Happy Slapping, where some Chavs beat people up and film it, with their 3G video phones.

Now we have a new one, proudly extolled by 3’s UK marketing director Graeme Oxby:

“Our customers are embracing the chance to become paparazzi, sharing images and clips of celebrities straightaway, well before paparazzo photos appear in the papers.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the Chavarazzi.

If you’re a “celebrity”, the price of that fame is getting increasingly high as far as your privacy is concerned. With everyone having a camera/video phone, you’re always going to be at risk of being photographed.

This is bad enough, but the Chavarazzi take photos and film in a very intrusive way - literally “in yer face”. This will lead to more and more famous people “doing a Sting” and abandoning public space altogether - Sting bailed out of a skiing holiday at Christmas as people were ruining it by rudely and intrusively taking photos of him and his family.

While new technology carries great and exciting benefits, there’s often a price to pay. In this case, 3’s innovative Moblogging facility, allowing you to share your thoughts and images while on the move, will be the bane of many famous people in the years to come.

How soon will we have a Government-led and celeb-supported backlash making the taking of Chavarazzi photos illegal?

Image from Wikipedia. I’ve spotted my first Wikipedia glaring error - the Chav doesn’t have a 3 phone, innit?

Original source: CRI Online via Moco News

I’ve been highly critical of child tracking applications in the past. While they sound a great idea at first, you soon realise that most don’t do what they claim - ie keep kids safe.

The applications can’t track abducted kids as most people know that the phone can be tracked and the kidnapper just dumps the phone.

And in terms of making sure that spotty Tommy Teen is where he should be, his phone might be, but he’ll be off partying - possibly with a spare phone, kept for that purpose.

That doesn’t stop companies trying to sell these applications to increasingly paranoid parents, however.

Mobile SOS have sent me some details of their product, which actually neatly side-steps these issues, up to a point anyway. Moreover, they’ve clearly looked at how kids use phones and just made this process more efficient.

There’s three main elements to the service.

1. Panic Alarm

You hit a speed dial button and a pre-recorded voice message goes to up to five other phones, which are pre-determined. Along with the message, the automated call also tells the recipient where the phone is at that moment.

This can obviously be done pretty discretely and doesn’t require the Panicker to speak or anything.

This still doesn’t solve the extreme scenario of an abduction (that’s fortunately pretty rare though), as it still only says where you are when you’re abducted, but does alert people that you’re in trouble.

Let’s just hope you haven’t got a panicky kid though….

2. I’m OK

This is another speed dial button and simply says you’re OK and where you are. So if Tommy Teen is going round to a friend’s house, he discretely hits the button on arrival and his folks are notified. Tommy likes it because he doesn’t loose coolio points by having to phone Mum. Mum has peace of mind.

3. Timer

This sends out a panic alarm unless the alarm is deactivated in a certain time frame. So if Tina Teen is going to a party, she has to deactivate the alarm to indicate that she’s not in trouble.

Of course, if Tina is madly snogging Tommy and looses all track of time, it sends out a false alarm and all hell breaks loose. But better to be safe than sorry, I guess, and Tina (or Tommy) isn’t going to repeat the scenario of Dad busting down the door and beating Tommy to a pulp again.

Seriously, the way round this might be to have the service phone Tina back and ask for a PIN or code. Failure to answer or the wrong code then activates the alarm. It might be a better way to ensure use of this feature.

The service is pretty cheaply priced, starting at £2 ($3.64) a month, with alerts being charged at 50p (91 cents).

Nice work guys

Mobile Games Analyst, part of Informa, have just published a list of the top 10 mobile games publishers in Europe:

1 Gameloft 165
2 InfoSpace 125
3 Sumea 121
4 In-Fusio 117
5 Digital Bridges (I-play) 111
6 THQW 108
7 Sorrent 96
8 Living Mobile 92
9 Jamdat 89
10 iFone 88

The weighting reflects how successful the companies are in getting their games onto the mobile operators’ games decks, the number of mobile operators they supplied games to and the size their subscriber bases.

Congrats to fellow Munich residents, Living Mobile, for making the cut and many thanks for sending me the info.

While getting onto the operator deck is clearly important (though not as important as it used to be), another interesting metric would be downloads, thereafter. Getting on the deck merely puts your product in danger of being sold and it’s the sales wot counts.