Beleaguered record execs are desperate for some good news. Despite
the Grokster case, P2P file sharing will go on unabated and besides
which (as Ben Hammersley points out) it does only apply to the US. A file sharing network is still valid in most of the rest of the world.

One of the straws they clutch at is ringtones. Once completely
ignored by the record industry (rumour has it that these people are paid
to go to work), ringtones are now a $4 billion revenue business,
in spite of their early scorn. So they now view the business as their
saviour.

"This is not a fad that will go away in the next year or so," said
Thomas Hesse, president of global digital business at Sony BMG Music
Entertainment.

But I think that’s exactly what it might be. A fad. A fashion. A
Tamagotchi. A Space Hopper. A Pokemon. A Beanie Babe. An iPod [There's a great website listing fads by decade here, for a trip down memory lane].

Actually, that’s not quite true. People will still get ringtones on
their phones. But, as a business, I think the bubble may be about to
burst big time.

Why?

Firstly, kids are getting fed up of getting ripped off. They’re going
to stop buying tones at three times the cost of an iTunes download. 99c
has become the "worth" of a track at the most. You can get an "all you can rent" model from Yahoo!
for $4.99 a month or you can go and eat your fill for free, with almost
guaranteed impunity, from a P2P network. So why do the record companies
and other retailers think they can carry on charging $4 or $5? Such
predatory pricing is madness.

Like murder, most technology change
is driven by motivation. Now all they need is the opportunity to end the
rip off. And that’ll come when the knowledge of self-created ringtones
and P2P filesharing of ringtones becomes more widespread.

Industry giant, Nokia, is committed to making this happen, with a spokesperson declaring that Nokia wants to encourage people in

"making ringtones, icons and other content and
giving it out free to other users" and that already "free tools that
people can use to create high-quality ringtones and icons are the most
popular downloads on our website".

More recently, Nokia launched their Sensor,
that many pundits see as a social networking tool. Sure, you can also IM over
Kazaa. But make no mistake, its primary function is file sharing - or
that’s what it’ll be used for.

As well as Nokia, there are loads of smaller independents offering
file sharing tones or the means of making and distributing them.

But, is there any evidence of this happening? Well, there are early
signs, for sure. In the UK, one of ringtones’ more mature markets, an ad in The Sun is lucky to breakeven - down from a return of 5 - 8 times only a year ago.

So there we have Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury. Motivation and
Opportunity - the two essential ingredients for adopting new
technology. I forecast the ringtone gold rush is over.