Gartner’s Hype Cycle

I was browsing Anita’s excellent RFID Weblog – a must read if you’re into this stuff – and came across a reference to Gartner’s Hype Cycle. I hadn’t seen this before, though I’m all to familiar with the phenomenon and it’s good to see it spelled out like this.

According to Gartner, new technologies:

“… first climb a steep “hype” curve, as pundits describe the benefits and paradigm-shifting characteristics of the technology.

Next, they plummet into a “trough of disillusionment” as inflated expectations get pushed aside by the reality of performance.

Finally, as the benefits are better understood and realized, mature and stable offerings emerge. The best example is the boom and bust of the e-commerce revolution and the subsequent stabilization of industry players such as Amazon and eBay.”

Another way of looking at this is when technology goes from being vendor push to user pull. Once vendors have basically given up and moved on to the next new, new thing, some cool users will come along and find the technology lying battered, bruised and unloved.

They’ll pick it up, dust it off and think of some cool and froody uses. They tell their friends who tell their friends and in time, we’ll suddenly see that there’s a significant and thriving user base.

WAP’s a great example of another “emerged” technology. Location is still in the trough of disillusionment, after the hype of a few years ago.

And MMS is never going to get out of the trough unless they try something different.

—–>Follow us on Twitter too: @russellbuckley and @caaarlo