Deloitte Research have been joining the trend-spotting/prediction game, with their top 12 for 2005. Since 8 deal directly with mobile phones, the main conclusion seems to be that this will be the year of the mobile.
Here’s what they say about mobile stuff:
# Electronic viruses will run rampant in PCs, cellphones, PDAs and gaming consoles. Nuisances such as unsolicited e-mail (spam), unsolicited instant messages (spim) and attacks on Bluetooth-enabled devices (bluejacking) will become common. These will cost businesses billions of dollars in lost data and downtime. However, it will also offer opportunities for companies that sell IT security solutions.
While I certainly think that mobile viruses are a huge opportunity to sell security solutions, I also think that the actual threat is negligible for most phone owners, unless exceptionally stupid and unfeasibly unlucky in the first place.
If you look under the bonnet of all the mobile virus stories to date, there’s no real substance. This may change obviously, but I think we’re pretty safe this year.
The Bluejacking thing is showing no sign of slowing down at all. Just because it’s not in the press all the time, doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
I also predict we’ll see more idiots trying Bluespamming this year (commercial messaging via Bluetooth) before they realise that spamming people who are near enough to hit you, don’t make sense.
# Music downloads will become respectable with the growing quality of online stores, rise in digital music players, the inclusion of CD burners as standard features in PCs, and the exceptional quality of legal downloads.
While legitimate, paid for downloading has surely always been “respectable”, it doesn’t mean that the free stuff will go away. It’s just too tempting for most cash strapped teens to download and the risk of copping a legal suit is so remote.
While the music industry is furiously congratulating each other on their sagacity of finally accepting digital downloading, the rest of us can’t help but smirk as they’re 4 years too late to really benefit from the party.
This is an industry that alternates between the anger and denial stages of loss.
# Ads will be embedded with text hyperlinks, software toolbar buttons, video games, software (particularly freeware), web browsers and even on mobile phone screens. These ads will be precisely targeted, updated via Internet connections based on time of day and user activity, and will be far more subtle and sophisticated and less intrusive.
There’s a big difference between “should” and “will”. Most advertisers are still wedded to the in-yer-face disruptive model and that’s not going to change soon. Another industry in denial.
# Simplicity will be the key to selling content on cellphones. Faster networks, better processors and brighter screens will make content over cellphones more appealing. ‘But many experiments will fail, due to a lack of understanding of the way mobile phones are used, the social context of mobile usage, and the limitations of the mobile device,’ the study notes. What will sell is simplicity – small, relevant packages of content that customise the device such as ringtones, screensavers and wallpapers. All this will contribute to a multi-billion dollar industry.
Yes, finally one I can agree with wholeheartedly. I’d go further though and say micro-segmentation of content is also key. Why oh why does all wallpaper get merchandised together? People don’t buy wallpaper, they buy (for instance) Busted Wallpaper and a Busted Ringtone. So why not put this together?
And if I buy an Eminem ringtone, it’s pretty unlikely that I’m going to buy a Britney ringtone, but I might buy an Eminem call back tune. So why not put the product in danger of being sold by better thought through merchandising?
# Small talk by billions will add up to big revenue as there will be nearly two billion mobile subscriptions worldwide by end-2005. Subscriber growth will be strongest in developing countries (including Asia and Latin America) where mobile phones are both a transformational technology and a status symbol.
Pretty much what I said in my predictions.
# Voice will be the primary source of revenue and profits in cellphones and will account for more than 80 per cent of total revenue. Cellphone penetration will surpass 100 per cent as more customers take a second subscription for data or for personal use. The most compelling and lucrative mobile content will revolve around personalisation, such as ringtones, real tones, wallpapers and basic games.
# The vast majority of voice calls will continue to originate and terminate the traditional way, on the public switched telephone network (PSTN), due to superior call quality and overall reliability. PSTN operators will cut prices in response to competition from low cost providers (mobile and VoIP), causing margin pressure.
# VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) will see both call volume and the user base increase significantly among consumers and businesses. Its adoption and growth will be limited by shortfalls in VoIP’s quality, consistency and reliability and the resulting slightly negative image in the marketplace. And for enterprises, cost savings will often be less than anticipated.
So, all in all, not a bad effort for a bunch of professionals 
Source: Asia One via Moco News
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