The Yankee Group have announced with absolute certainty that

mobile data revenues will double to $50 billion over next five years

Phew! That’s a relief then. With voice calls in decline (a fact, not a guess) it would be jolly worrying for the telcom industry if something wasn’t going to come along and replace this lost income.

So now, the operators can take this report to their shareholders and make reassuring noises and everyone will be happy.

Of course, it might be complete coincidence, but you don’t hear of many reports that paint a pessimistic view of data traffic (or anything else for that matter). But then who would buy such a report? Not the operators, as it’s not what they want to hear or what they want to tell their shareholders.

Funny that.

I wonder what would happen if analysts had to publish an analysis today, of what they were saying 5 or 10 years ago about what would be happening now?

It’d be interesting wouldn’t it?

But, leaving my cynicism of analysts aside, I’m sure that mobile data will explode over the coming years, otherwise Iíd find a new passion. Iíd also suggest that theyíll actually increase by 223.758 % in the next five years, but hey, I can stick a finger in the air as well as anyone can.

However, my forecast assumes that the operators start looking at how they can actively encourage data traffic. And that means fostering the development of applications AND content that consumers really want. This kind of market innovation rarely happens within giant companies like operators, so the big question Iíd be asking as an operator shareholder wouldnít relate to how many reports theyíd purchased that month but:

How is your company actively fostering the development of creative applications that will drive data traffic in the next 5 years? What is your strategy for achieving this?

The amazing and well-documented success of DoCoMo owes itself mainly to the way they approached this challenge.

And if operators donít develop and act on this strategy, itís the modern equivalent of building railway tracks, while hoping and praying that someone, somewhere will think up a way to use them.